MPs Who Won Their Seats On First Preferences In The 2016 Federal Election

Just under a third of the seats in the House of Representatives were decided on first preference (primary) votes at the 2016 Federal Election.

By definition, these seats are the most secure for the various parties, since preference distribution cannot change the result. The winner has already secured an absolute majority of at least 50%+1 over every other candidate.

Of the 150 electorates, 48 (32%) were won on the primary vote. There were 53 such seats (35%) at the 2013 election. In 2004, 89 seats (59%) were decided on first preferences.

The Liberal Party was most successful, winning 27 of the 48 seats (56%), including 12 in NSW. The Liberal wins covered 4 states.

The Nationals won 5 seats (10%), including 3 in NSW, giving the coalition 32, or 67% of the total.

The ALP won 16 (33%) of the seats, including 10 in NSW. It won 6 seats in Victoria, but failed to win any more in other states or territories.

Seats Won On Primary Votes – 2016 Federal Election
Party	NSW	Vic	Qld	WA	Total
Liberal Party	12	8	4	3	27
The Nationals	3	2			5
Australian Labor Party	10	6			16
TOTAL	25	16	4	3	48

 
NSW was the only state to have a majority of seats (25 of 47, or 53%) won on primary votes. In Victoria, 16 seats out of 37 (43%) were won on first preferences. Western Australia recorded 19% and Queensland 13%.

The two smallest states, South Australia and Tasmania, had no seats decided on primaries. The four seats in the two territories all went to preferences.

The Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) drained votes from the major parties in South Australia, where 5 Liberal seats (Barker, Boothby, Grey, Mayo and Sturt) and 1 ALP seat (Port Adelaide) were all won on primaries in 2013. This year, NXT won Mayo and came second in Barker and Grey, whilst polling strongly in the other seats.

The seats of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (Wentworth), Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce (New England) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (Maribyrnong) all feature on the list of seats won on primaries, as do Treasurer Scott Morrison (Cook) and Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen (McMahon). Former prime minister Tony Abbott (Warringah) also won his seat on primaries.

The largest primary vote in the nation was achieved by Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, in Curtin, Western Australia. She won 65.50% of the primary vote and 70.70% of the two-party-preferred.

Andrew Broad, the Nationals member for Mallee, did better than Bishop with 71.32% of the two-party vote, off a slightly lower primary of 64.31%.

Even though it was not won on primaries, the safest seat in the nation, following the election, is Murray, won by the Nationals’ Damian Drum, with a two-party vote of 74.90%. Following the retirement of Sharman Stone, the Nationals took the seat from the Liberal Party.

The ALP’s safest seat in two-party terms is Grayndler, held by Anthony Albanese, with 72.36% of the two-party vote. However, whilst they are still in third place, the challenge to the ALP in this seat comes from the Greens.

The three tables below show each of the 48 seats won on primary votes at the 2016 election by the Liberals, Nationals and ALP. The primary vote and two-party-preferred percentage are shown for each seat.

Liberal Seats Decided On First Preferences (Primary Votes) – 2016
No.	Seat	State	Party	Member	Primary %	2PP %
1.	Bennelong	NSW	Liberal	John Alexander	50.41	59.72
2.	Berowra	NSW	Liberal	Julian Leeser	57.09	66.45
3.	Bradfield	NSW	Liberal	Paul Fletcher	61.12	71.04
4.	Cook	NSW	Liberal	Scott Morrison	58.35	65.39
5.	Farrer	NSW	Liberal	Sussan Ley	57.87	70.53
6.	Hughes	NSW	Liberal	Craig Kelly	51.97	59.33
7.	Hume	NSW	Liberal	Angus Taylor	53.83	60.18
8.	Mackellar	NSW	Liberal	Jason Falinski	51.17	65.74
9.	Mitchell	NSW	Liberal	Alex Hawke	60.49	67.82
10.	North Sydney	NSW	Liberal	Trent Zimmerman	51.49	63.61
11.	Warringah	NSW	Liberal	Tony Abbott	51.65	61.55
12.	Wentworth	NSW	Liberal	Malcolm Turnbull	62.26	67.75
13.	Aston	Vic	Liberal	Alan Tudge	50.86	58.59
14.	Deakin	Vic	Liberal	Michael Sukkar	50.03	55.68
15.	Flinders	Vic	Liberal	Greg Hunt	51.60	57.77
16.	Goldstein	Vic	Liberal	Tim Wilson	56.33	62.68
17.	Higgins	Vic	Liberal	Kelly O’Dwyer	52.00	57.99
18.	Kooyong	Vic	Liberal	Josh Frydenberg	58.22	63.34
19.	Menzies	Vic	Liberal	Kevin Andrews	51.72	60.56
20.	Wannon	Vic	Liberal	Dan Tehan	53.23	58.96
21.	Groom	Qld	LNP	John McVeigh	54.00	65.31
22.	McPherson	Qld	LNP	Karen Andrews	53.29	61.64
23.	Moncrieff	Qld	Liberal	Steve Ciobo	58.97	64.94
24.	Ryan	Qld	LNP	Jane Prentice	52.13	59.09
25.	Canning	WA	Liberal	Andrew Hastie	50.30	56.79
26.	Curtin	WA	Liberal	Julie Bishop	65.50	70.70
27.	Moore	WA	Liberal	Ian Goodenough	54.98	61.02

 

Nationals Seats Decided On First Preferences (Primary Votes) – 2016
No.	Seat	State	Party	Member	Primary %	2PP %
1.	New England	NSW	Nationals	Barnaby Joyce	52.29	58.52
2.	Parkes	NSW	Nationals	Mark Coulton	58.65	65.10
3.	Riverina	NSW	Nationals	Michael McCormack	57.20	66.44
4.	Gippsland	Vic	Nationals	Darren Chester	56.34	68.43
5.	Mallee	Vic	Nationals	Andrew Broad	64.31	71.32

 

ALP Seats Decided On First Preferences (Primary Votes) – 2016
No.	Seat	State	Party	Member	Primary %	2PP %
1.	Blaxland	NSW	ALP	Jason Clare	63.31	69.48
2.	Chifley	NSW	ALP	Ed Husic	61.09	69.19
3.	Fowler	NSW	ALP	Chris Hayes	60.82	67.49
4.	Hunter	NSW	ALP	Joel Fitzgibbon	51.79	62.46
5.	Macarthur	NSW	ALP	Mike Freelander	51.88	58.33
6.	McMahon	NSW	ALP	Chris Bowen	53.44	62.11
7.	Shortland	NSW	ALP	Pat Conroy	51.17	59.94
8.	Watson	NSW	ALP	Tony Burke	55.39	67.58
9.	Werriwa	NSW	ALP	Anne Stanley	52.14	58.20
10.	Whitlam	NSW	ALP	Stephen Jones	52.76	63.72
11.	Calwell	Vic	ALP	Maria Vamvakinou	56.81	67.87
12.	Gorton	Vic	ALP	Brendan O’Connor	62.29	69.45
13.	Holt	Vic	ALP	Anthony Byrne	53.70	64.17
14.	Lalor	Vic	ALP	Joanne Ryan	51.80	63.44
15.	Maribyrnong	Vic	ALP	Bill Shorten	50.52	62.31
16.	Scullin	Vic	ALP	Andrew Giles	57.00	67.28