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Archives for December 2016

Treasurer Releases MYEFO – Mid-Year Economic And Fiscal Outlook Projects Lower Growth But Surplus In 2020-21

The Treasurer, Scott Morrison, has released the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, a budget update that projects lower growth but with a return to surplus still forecast in 2020-21.

Morrison

MEYEFO projects that economic growth in 2016-17 will fall from 2.5% to 2%. In 2017-18, it will be 2.75%, down from 3%. The 2018-19 and 2019-20 projections of 3% growth remain.

The government says the underlying cash deficit is expected to narrow from $36.5 billion (2.1% of GDP) in 2016-17 to $10.0 billion (0.5% of GDP) in 2019-20.

Treasurer Scott Morrison told a press conference with Finance Minister Senator Mathias Cormann this afternoon that in six weeks of parliamentary sittings since the election the government has legislated two-thirds of its budget repair measures.

MYEFO has confirmed that Tony Abbott’s Green Army will be abolished. The government will also save $970 milllion from cuts to family payments.

Tax receipts are down $31 billion from the May Budget forecasts.

Unemployment is predicted to remain at 5.5% through to 2017-18, falling to 5.25% thereafter.

  • Listen to Treasurer Morrison and Finance Minister Cormann at their press conference (44m)
  • Watch the press conference (45m)
16-12-19_myefo

Media release from Treasurer Scott Morrison and Finance Minister Senator Mathias Cormann.

Today’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) confirms that the Budget is projected to return to balance in 2020-21.

The underlying cash deficit is now expected to narrow from $36.5 billion or 2.1 per cent of GDP in 2016-17 (down on the $37.1 billion reported in the Budget and PEFO) down to $10.0 billion (0.5 per cent of GDP) in 2019-20. [Read more…]


Senator Rod Culleton Resigns From Pauline Hanson’s One Nation

Senator Rod Culleton has announced his resignation from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party.

CulletonIn a Twitter post tonight, Culleton criticised Hanson and One Nation. In a characteristically rambling and incoherent media release, he said: “Policy decisions have been run in morning media, with no consultation, discussion or agreement from the party room and personal attacks and undermining, un-Australian behaviour towards myself and my team, has been ongoing and terms dictated to the team.”

Culleton accused Hanson of “diluting her pre-election promises” in relation to a banking inquiry. He said: “The PHON leader’s public rants against me have also been accompanied by demands for my resignation and control over diaries, office management and staffing by Senator Hanson and her Chief of Staff, James Ashby.”

Culleton said he intended to continue “independently of PHON” in the 45th Parliament.

The Western Australian senator is awaiting a High Court ruling on his eligibility for election to Parliament. If he is expelled from the Senate, a recount will most likely result in Culleton’s brother-in-law replacing him. [Read more…]


Malcolm Turnbull Becomes Australia’s 22nd Longest-Serving Prime Minister

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull today becomes the nation’s 22nd longest-serving prime minister.

Turnbull has now served in the position for 1 year, 2 months and 25 days, overtaking Joseph Cook, who took the original Liberal Party to its first-ever election victory in 1913. Like Turnbull in 2016, Cook only secured a one-seat majority. Cook was gone within 15 months.

Turnbull has now broken free of the pack of prime ministers who governed briefly, in three cases as stop-gaps following the death of the incumbent. On June 10, 2017, he will move into 21st position when he overtakes William McMahon, the Liberal PM who lost to Gough Whitlam in 1972 and took the coalition out of government for the first time in 23 years.

December 10 Elections

Today is also the anniversary of three federal elections, in 1949, 1955 and 1977. The first of these saw Robert Menzies begin his record-breaking 16-year term as prime minister. In 1955, he won the fourth of seven consecutive victories, in the aftermath of the disastrous split in the ALP. In 1977, Malcolm Fraser secured his second massive victory against the ALP, in an election that ended Gough Whitlam’s political career.

With three outings, December 10 is the single most popular day for federal elections in Australian political history. Two elections have been held on each of August 21, December 13 and December 16. With a total of 12 elections (26.7%), December is the single most popular month for elections.

The last December election was in 1984, when Bob Hawke won the second of his four victories for the ALP. Hawke turned 87 yesterday.


Success And Failure: The ALP’s Results In Federal Elections Since 1910

The tables on this page show the extent of the ALP’s victories and defeats in federal elections since 1910.

Each table shows the ALP statistics for three different measures:

  • the proportion of seats won in the House of Representatives,
  • the national two-party-preferred vote,
  • and the primary vote.

The ALP’s winning election years are shaded yellow.

The table includes every election since Federation, except for the first three: 1901, 1903 and 1906. These have been excluded since they took place before the formation of the two-party system as we know it. Since 1910, elections have been fought between the ALP and the non-Labor parties under a variety of names. [Read more…]


At Year’s End, Reserve Bank Leaves Cash Rate At 1.5%

As 2016 ends, the Reserve Bank of Australia has left the cash rate at 1.5%.

At its monthly board meeting, the bank made no change to the rate that has been in place since August. Movements in the cash rate are generally reflected in movements in commercial interest rates.

In a statement, the bank’s Governor, Philip Lowe, repeated points made in previous months about rising commodity prices, the effective functioning of financial markets and Australia’s transition from the mining investment boom. It says unemployment has decreased, inflation is low and the housing market has strengthened.

At the beginning of the year, the cash rate was 2.0%. The bank reduced the rate by 0.25% in May and by 0.25% in August. The rate is at an historic low point.

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Monetary Policy Decision

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.

The global economy is continuing to grow, at a lower than average pace. Labour market conditions in the advanced economies have improved over the past year. Economic conditions in China have steadied, supported by growth in infrastructure and property construction, although medium-term risks to growth remain. Inflation remains below most central banks’ targets, although headline inflation rates have increased recently. Globally, the outlook for inflation is more balanced than it has been for some time. [Read more…]