December 5, 2023
The Opinion category includes articles I have written for external publications, predominantly The Drum.
Terri Butler will become the new Labor member for Griffith, following her by-election victory in the Brisbane-based electorate vacated by former prime minister Kevin Rudd.
At the close of counting tonight, Butler had recorded a two-party-preferred vote of 52.33%. This is a swing against the ALP of 0.68% since the September 2013 general election.
As counting of the 2013 federal election winds down, the Senate election result is now clear.
There is a small chance of change in Western Australia where the Greens have asked for a recount following Scott Ludlam’s defeat.
Because of the fixed terms of the Senate, it will be another nine months before the complexion of the Senate changes. Current senators remain in place until June 30, 2014.
The current numbers are:
| The Current Senate – until June 30, 2014 | |
|---|---|
| Party/Group | No. |
| Coalition | |
| A.L.P. | |
| Greens | |
| D.L.P. (Madigan) | |
| Independent (Xenophon) | |
| TOTAL | |
In this configuration, the Greens hold the balance of power. The Greens-ALP combination has a blocking majority. It ensures that Abbott government legislation to repeal the carbon pricing arrangements and the mining tax will most likely be rejected by the Senate.
This will be the state of the parties in the Senate after July 1, 2014:
| The New Senate – from July 1, 2014 | |
|---|---|
| Party/Group | No. |
| Coalition | |
| A.L.P. | |
| Greens | |
| Palmer United Party | |
| D.L.P. (Madigan) | |
| Liberal Democrats (Leyonhjelm) | |
| Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party (Muir) | |
| Family First (Day) | |
| Independent (Xenophon) | |
| TOTAL | |
In this configuration, the ALP-Greens combination becomes less important and power shifts to a collection of minor groups and independents.
by Malcolm Farnsworth
There’s votes and there’s bodies.
In Saturday’s election, the ALP ended up with more bodies than it thought it would. Members who were written off or deemed at risk just three months ago have survived the election.
Think, for example, of Jason Clare, Chris Bowen, Laurie Ferguson, Ed Husic, Matt Thistlethwaite, Mark Dreyfus, Alan Griffin, Anna Burke, Graham Perrett, Kate Ellis, Gary Gray and Warren Snowdon. They are some of the saved furniture. Some of it is tatty, some of it has lustre, but it has survived.
That’s why the relief in the ALP is palpable. Bodies matter. MPs have staff, offices and facilities. They are an essential part of the infrastructure a political party needs to wage war with its opponents.
Whatever the Gillard apologists might say – and they were out in force over the weekend – the ALP was heading for the loss of 30-40 seats in June.
In Melbourne in May the massive swing against the ALP in a state by-election where the Liberals didn’t even run a candidate drew attention to what was happening in the electorate. In some areas, the swings were over 20%. The smarties denied that a state by-election warranted federal comparisons but people on the ground knew better.
by Malcolm Farnsworth
After Kevin Rudd’s return to the prime ministership on June 27, and throughout July, I told anyone who asked that I thought the electoral psychology of Rudd’s revival wasn’t clear. I wanted to wait until the end of July to see what the polls revealed.
It seems clear now that the country breathed a sigh of relief that Gillard was gone. The electorate was also prepared to give Rudd a chance to show his stuff. There was a general sense of excitement that we now had a contest.