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This website is in imminent danger of being shut down. It has been online since 1995, but the personal circumstances of the owner, Malcolm Farnsworth, are such that economies have to be made. Server costs and suchlike have become prohibitive. At the urging of people online, I have agreed to see if Patreon provides a solution. More information is available at the Patreon website. If you are able to contribute even $1.00/month to keep the site running, please click the Patreon button below.


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Herbert Heads For Recount With ALP 8 Votes Ahead

11.58pm – The Second Turnbull Government was sworn in today but the Queensland seat of Herbert remains undecided, with the ALP now back in the lead by 8 votes and a recount looming.

A two-party swing of 6.17% has produced a virtual tie in Herbert. At the close of counting on Monday, the ALP had regained the lead it lost on July 13 and was ahead by 8 votes, 44,184 to 44,176.

The AEC website tonight shows 574 outstanding votes to count. These include 61 absent votes, 316 provisionals, 183 declaration pre-poll and 14 postal votes. 68.8% of provisional votes are being rejected as ineligible, so the actual number of uncounted votes is probably closer to 370. [Read more…]


Is Melbourne Ports Going To Be The Surprise Result In The Election?

As counting continues to determine whether the re-elected Turnbull government will have a majority in its own right, attention has turned to an unusual situation in Melbourne Ports.

DanbyThe inner Melbourne electorate includes Port Melbourne, Southbank, South Melbourne, Albert Park, St. Kilda, Elwood, Balaclava and Caulfield, and has been held by the ALP since 1906. In that 110-year period, it has had just 5 members.

Michael Danby has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. He is seeking a seventh term at this year’s election. A member of the ALP’s right-wing faction, Danby is well-known for his defence of Israel and his hostility to the Greens.

At recent elections, Danby’s primary vote has steadily declined and he has been dependent on Greens preferences since 2001. [Read more…]


Undecided Seats: Turnbull Edges Towards Narrow Victory

11.45pm – A path to a narrow victory for the Turnbull government emerged in today’s counting of votes for seats in the House of Representatives.

The five undecided seats in which the Coalition previously led have now been listed as settled: Gilmore, Chisholm, Dunkley, Barker and Grey. In all of these the Liberal Party’s lead grew as postal and other declaration votes were added to the count. In the case of the latter two South Australian electorates, where the Nick Xenophon Team emerged as the main opposition to the Liberals, the counting of two-candidate-preferred has confirmed the seats as retained by the Liberals.

Similarly, I have removed Melbourne Ports from the list of undecided seats. Preference flows mean that the seat is not likely to see the Greens take second place ahead of the ALP.

However, counting today revealed that the Queensland electorate of Flynn has come into play. This seat had been classified as an ALP gain but counting of postal votes saw a large drop in the ALP’s lead, from 1824 to 1065. LNP officials are said to be very confident that a 65% flow of preferences from postal votes makes the seat winnable.

These changes mean that the Coalition now has 73 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5. [Read more…]


Update On Undecided Seats – Hung Parliament Looks Most Likely

11.39pm – Today I have removed 4 seats from the list of undecideds.

The 4 seats no longer considered undecided are: Robertson, Batman, La Trobe and Petrie.

Their removal means that the Coalition now has 68 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.

Of the 11 remaining seats in doubt, the Coalition is ahead in 5 and the ALP is ahead in 6. If these seats were to stay that way, the Coalition would finish with 73 seats, the ALP 72, and Others 5. The government would be three seats short of an absolute majority and we would have a hung Parliament.

Many media reports say there are only 8 or 9 doubtful seats. I have included Barker and Grey because the Australian Electoral Commission has not finished the reordering of two-party-preferred votes (Labor v. Liberal) to two-candidate-preferred (Liberal v. Xenophon). Both seats are likely to remain with the Liberals.

I have also included Melbourne Ports in the list of doubtful seats. There is a possibility that the full distribution of preferences could see the Greens overtake the ALP and move into second place. ALP preferences could then elect either the Green or Liberal candidate. The incumbent Labor MP, Michael Danby, issued a how-to-vote card that placed the Liberal candidate ahead of the Green. This adds an extra complication to predictions for this seat.

Ten seats in the table all have a margin of close-to or less than 1000 votes. Most have a margin of less than 1%. Experience shows that a margin of 1000 votes is unlikely to be reversed by postal, absent and declaration votes, although this varies widely between electorates.

There is a case to be made that Forde is the only doubtful seat left, but such a judgment is somewhat premature. The picture should be clearer by the end of Wednesday, July 6, after the counting of more postal votes.
[Read more…]


House Of Representatives Undecided Seats: Latest Figures

These are the latest figures for seats that remain undecided in the House of Representatives.

The 15 seats in the table all have a margin of close-to or less than 1000 votes. Most have a margin of less than 1%. Experience shows that a margin of 1000 votes is unlikely to be reversed by postal, absent and declaration votes.

Of the 15 seats, the Coalition is ahead in 7, the ALP is ahead in 7 and the Nick Xenophon Team leads in 1.

On current counting, the Coalition and ALP each have a definite 65 seats, although estimates vary. If the Coalition were to maintain its lead in the 7 seats it is ahead in, it would have 72 seats, four short of an absolute majority of 76. If the ALP were to maintain its lead in the other 7 seats, it would have 72 seats, four short of an absolute majority. A government victory with 76 seats is possible, but the coalition will need to capture 11 seats from the list below. It cannot win Batman.

The seats of Batman, La Trobe and Melbourne Ports, in Victoria, and Robertson, in NSW, are not seriously in doubt. In Queensland, it is unlikely that Capricornia, Herbert and Petrie will change. In South Australia, it is not expected that NXT will win Barker, but very few votes have been posted as yet. Given the large number of pre-poll and postal votes, I have adopted an ultra-cautious approach to the list but I expect to be able to remove seats from this list in the next couple of days.

Significant new figures will not be available until Tuesday, July 5, when the counting of postal votes begins.

The table will be updated each day until all seats are decided. [Read more…]


What The Electoral Commission Is Doing Today

With no clear result available for yesterday’s federal election, attention has turned to how the Australian Electoral Commission will count the outstanding votes.

Today, Sunday, th AEC will concentrate on arrangements for the exchange of declaration votes around the country. All postal votes, absent votes and any kind of declaration vote requiring an identity and enrolment check need to be delivered to the correct electorate. The administrative work on these takes place today.

The counting of these votes will being to show up in the results on Tuesday and Wednesday. Postal votes will continue to arrive for the next 13 days.

Media statement from the Australian Electoral Commission.

AEC media statement: counting

On election night, the AEC counted more than 11 million House of Representatives votes. These included the votes cast in polling places on election day and votes cast in early voting centres. These results, down to polling place level, are available on the AEC’s Tally Room. The AEC also conducted a first preference count of Senate ballot papers cast in polling places. [Read more…]


Official Guide To The 2016 Election: Australian Electoral Commission

This is the official guide to the 2016 federal election, issued by the Australian Electoral Commission.

The booklet will be distributed to all enrolled voters.

The PDF shown below can be expanded and downloaded. [Read more…]


Parties And Groups Contesting The Senate In The 2016 Federal Election

Nominations for the 2016 Federal Election closed today.

The table on this page shows the parties and groups contesting the Senate in the 6 states and 2 territories.

A cell is shaded yellow if a particular party/group is contesting that state/territory.

The major parties are listed first. Other groups are listed in alphabetical order but I have made some rearrangements to take account of groups combining forces in various states/territories. Most groups have nominated two or three candidates. [Read more…]


Election Nominations: Three MPs Who Blundered Their Way Out Of Parliament

Nominations for the 2016 federal election close at noon today.

On such a day, I always give a thought to some famous examples of sitting MPs who forgot to nominate in time and ended up out of parliament.

It is all but impossible for a federal candidate for a political party to fail to nominate these days. Group nominations can be submitted by the parties on behalf of individual candidates two days before the final close of nominations.

2002 – Dr. Robert Dean

DeanDean, then 50, was the Liberal shadow treasurer in Victoria. He had been the Liberal member for Berwick since 1992, Following a redistribution, he nominated in the seat of Gembrook and claimed an enrolment address in Berwick, a property he had previously rented.

The Victorian Electoral Commission ruled he was ineligible to stand because he had been struck off the roll when the Commission established he was not living at the Berwick address.

Dean, in fact, lived in Hawthorn, some considerable distance from Gembrook. [Read more…]


Financial Disclosure Facts

Financial disclosure is required of candidates/parties and election donors in Australia.

The financial disclosure returns are released for public inspection by the Australian Electoral Commission 24 weeks after polling day in each particular election.

This material is reproduced from an Australian Electoral Commission media release on the Canning by-election disclosure returns.

Financial Disclosure Facts

The Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 requires candidates, Senate groups and donors to furnish financial disclosure returns to the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) covering each election.

These returns are made public 24 weeks after polling day in the relevant election. [Read more…]