The development of the system is seen as an alternative to the controversial "Star Wars" defence system of former President Ronald Reagan.
Recent tests have shown around only a one-third success rate in the development of the technology.
Thank you very much. When you gave us such a warm welcome and then you applauded some of Dean Galucci's early lines, I thought to myself, I'm glad he can get this sort of reception because I gave him a lot of thankless jobs to do in our administration where no one ever applauded.
And he did them brilliantly. And I'm delighted to see him here succeeding so well as the dean.
Provost Brown, thank you for welcoming me here.
And I told them when I came in I was sort of glad Father O'Donovan (ph) wasn't here today because I've come so often, I know that at some point, if I keep doing this, he will tell me that he's going to send a bill to the U.S. Treasury for the Georgetown endowment.
I was thinking when we came out here and Bob talked about the beginning of the school year that it was 35 years ago when, as a sophomore, I was in charge of the freshmen orientation. So I thought I should come and help this year's orientation of freshmen get off to a good start.
I also was thinking, I confess, after your rousing welcome, that if I were still a candidate for public office I might get up and say hello and sit down and quit while I'm ahead.
For I came today to talk about a subject that is not fraught with applause lines, but one that is very, very important to your future: the defense of our nation.
At this moment of unprecedented peace and prosperity with no immediate threat to our security or our existence, with our democratic values ascendant and our alliances strong, with the great forces of our time--globalization and the revolution in information technology--so clearly beneficial to a society like ours with our diversity and our openness and our entrepreneurial spirit, at a time like this, it is tempting, but wrong, to believe there are no serious long-term challenges to our security.
The rapid spread of technology across increasingly porous borders raises the specter that more and more states, terrorists and criminal syndicates could gain access to chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons and to the means of delivering them, whether in small units deployed by terrorists within our midst or ballistic missiles capable of hurling those weapons halfway around the world.
Today, I want to discuss these threats with you, because you will live with them a lot longer than I will. Especially, I want to talk about the ballistic missile threat. It is real and growing and has given new urgency to the debate about national missile defenses, known in the popular jargon as NMD.
When I became president, I put our effort to stop the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction at the very top of our national security agenda.
Since then, we have carried out a comprehensive strategy to reduce and secure nuclear arsenals, to strengthen the international regime against biological and chemical weapons and nuclear testing, and to stop the flow of dangerous technology to nations that might wish us harm.
At the same time, we have pursued new technologies that could strengthen our defenses against a possible attack, including a terrorist attack, here at home.
None of these elements of our national security strategy can be pursued in isolation. Each is important, and we have made progress in each area. For example, Russia and the United States already have destroyed about 25,000 nuclear weapons in the last decade. And we have agreed that in the START III Treaty we will go 80 percent below the levels of a decade ago.
In 1994, we persuaded Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belorus, three of the former Soviet Republics, to give up their nuclear weapons entirely.
We have worked with Russia and its neighbors to dispose of hundreds of tons of dangerous nuclear materials, to strengthen controls on illicit exports and to keep weapons scientists from selling their services to the highest bidder.
We extended the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty indefinitely. We were the very first nation to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, an idea first embraced by Presidents Kennedy and Eisenhower.
Sixty nations now have ratified the test ban treaty. I believe the United States Senate made a serious error in failing to ratify it last year, and I hope it will do so next year.
We also negotiated and ratified the international convention to ban chemical weapons and strengthened the convention against biological weapons. We've used our export controls to deny terrorists and potential adversaries access to the materials and equipment needed to build these kinds of weapons. We've imposed sanctions on those who contribute to foreign chemical and biological weapons programs.
We've invested new equipment--invested in new equipment and medical countermeasures to protect people from exposure. And we're working with state and local medical units all over our country to strengthen our preparedness in case of a chemical or biological terrorist attack, which many people believe is the most likely new security threat of the 21st century.
We have also acted to reduce the threat posed by states that have sought weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, while pursuing activities that are clearly hostile to our long-term interests.
For over a decade--for almost a decade, excuse me, we have diverted about 90 percent of Iraq's oil revenues from the production of weapons to the purchase of food and medicine. This is an important statistic for those who believe that our sanctions are only a negative for the people, and particularly the children of Iraq.
In 1989, Iraq earned $15 billion from oil exports and spent $13 billion of that money on its military.
This year, Iraq is projected to earn $19 billion from its legal oil-for-food exports, but can spend none of those revenues on the military.
We worked to counter Iran efforts to develop nuclear weapons and missile technology, convincing China to provide no new assistance to Iran's nuclear program, and pressing Russia to strengthen its controls on the export of sensitive technologies.
In 1994, six years after the United States first learned that North Korea had a nuclear weapons program, we negotiated the agreement that, verifiably, has frozen its production of plutonium for nuclear weapons. Now, in the context of the United States negotiations with the North, the diplomatic efforts by former Defense Secretary Bill Perry, and most lately the summit between the leaders between North and South Korea, North Korea has refrained from flight-testing a new missile that could pose a threat to America.
And we should be clear: North Korea's capability remains a serious issue and its intention remain unclear, but its missile testing moratorium is a good development worth pursuing.
These diplomatic efforts to meet the threat of proliferation are backed by the strong and global reach of our armed forces. Today, the United States enjoys overwhelming military superiority over any potential adversary. For example, in 1985, we spent about as much on defense as Russia, China and North Korea combined. Today we spend nearly three times as much, nearly $300 billion a year. And our military technology, clearly, is well ahead of the rest of the world.
The principle of deterrence served us very well in the Cold War, and deterrence remains imperative. The threat of overwhelming retaliation deterred Saddam Hussein from using weapons of mass destruction during the Gulf War. Our forces in South Korea have deterred North Korean aggression for 47 years.
The question is: Can deterrence protect us against all those who might wish us harm in the future?
Can we make America even more secure? The effort to answer these questions is the impetus behind the search for NMD.
The issue is whether we can do more not to meet today's threat, but to meet tomorrow's threats to our security. For example, there is the possibility that a hostile state with nuclear weapons and long-range missiles may simply disintegrate, with command over missiles falling into unstable hands; or that in a moment of desperation, such a country might miscalculate, believing it could use nuclear weapons to intimidate us from defending our vital interests or from coming to the aid of our allies or others who were defenseless and clearly in need.
In the future, we cannot rule out that terrorist groups could gain the capability to strike us with nuclear weapons if they seized even temporary control of the state with an existing nuclear weapons establishment.
Now no one suggests that NMD would ever substitute for diplomacy or for deterrence, but such a system, if it worked properly, could give us an extra dimension of insurance in a world where proliferation has complicated the task of preserving the peace. Therefore, I believe we have an obligation to determine the feasibility, the effectiveness and the impact of a national missile defense on the overall security of the United States.
The system now under development is designed to work as follows: In the event of an attack, American satellites would detect the launch of missiles. Our radar would track the enemy warheads, and highly accurate, high-speed, ground-based interceptors would destroy them before they could reach their targets in the United States.
We have made substantial progress on a system that would be based in Alaska and that, when operational, could protect all 50 states from the near-term missile threats we face, those emanating from North Korea and the Middle East.
The system could be deployed sooner than any of the proposed alternatives.
Since last fall, we've been conducting flight tests to see if this NMD system actually can reliably intercept a ballistic missile.
We've begun to show that the different parts of this system can work together. Our Defense Department has overcome daunting technical obstacles in a remarkably short period of time, and I'm proud of the work that Secretary Cohen, General Shelton and their teams have done.
One test proved that it is, in fact, possible to hit a bullet with a bullet.
Still, though the technology for NMD is promising, the system as a whole is not yet proven. After the initial tests succeeded, our two most recent tests failed, for different reasons, to achieve an intercept. Several more tests are planned. They will tell us whether NMD can work reliably under realistic conditions.
The critical elements of the program, such as the booster rocket for the missile interceptor, have yet to be tested. There are also questions to be resolved about the ability of the system to deal with countermeasures, in other words, measures by those firing the missiles to confuse the missile defense into thinking it is hitting a target when it is not.
There is a reasonable chance that all these challenges can be met in time, but I simply cannot conclude, with the information I have today, that we have enough confidence in the technology and the operational effectiveness of the entire NMD system to move forward to deployment.
Therefore, I have decided not to authorize deployment of a national missile defense at this time.
Instead, I have asked Secretary Cohen to continue a robust program of development and testing.
That effort still is at an early stage. Only three of the 19 planned intercept tests have been held so far. We need more tests against more challenging targets and more simulations before we can responsibly commit our nation's resources to deployment. We should use this time to ensure that NMD, if deployed, would actually enhance our overall national security. And I want to talk about that in a few moments.
I want you to know that I have reached this decision about not deploying the NMD after careful deliberation. My decision will not have a significant impact on the date the overall system could be deployed in the next administration if the next president decides to go forward.
The best judgment of the experts who have examined this question is that if we were to commit today to construct the system it most likely would be operational about 2006 or 2007. If the next president decides to move forward next year, the system still could be ready in the same time frame.
In the meantime, we will continue to work with our allies and with Russia to strengthen their understanding and support for our efforts to meet the emerging ballistic missile threat, and to explore creative ways that we can cooperate to enhance their security against this threat as well.
An effective NMD could play an important part of our national security strategy, but it could not be the sum total of that strategy. It can never be the sum total of that strategy for dealing with nuclear and missile threats.
Moreover, ballistic missiles, armed with nuclear weapons, as I said earlier, do not represent the sum total of the threats we face. Those include chemical and biological weapons and a range of deadly technologies for deploying them. So it would be folly to base the defense of our nation solely on a strategy of waiting until missiles are in the air and then trying to shoot them down.
We must work with our allies and with Russia to prevent potential adversaries from ever threatening us with nuclear, chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction in the first place and to make sure they know the devastating consequences of doing so.
The elements of our strategy cannot be allowed to undermine one another. They must reinforce one another and contribute to our national defense in all its dimensions; that includes the profoundly important dimension of arms control.
Over the past 30 years, Republican and Democratic presidents alike have negotiated an array of arms control treaties with Russia. We and our allies have relied on these treaties to ensure strategic stability and predictability with Russia, to get on with the job of dismantling the legacy of the Cold War, and to further the transition from confrontation to cooperation with our former adversary in the most important arena: nuclear weapons.
A key part of the international security structure we have built with Russia, and, therefore, a key part of our national security, is the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, signed by President Nixon in 1972. The ABM Treaty limits anti-missile defenses according to a simple principle: Neither side should deploy defenses that would undermine the other side's nuclear deterrent, and thus tempt the other side to strike first in a crisis or to take countermeasures that would make both our countries less secure.
Strategic stability based on mutual deterrence is still important, despite the end of the Cold War. Why? Because the United States and Russia still have nuclear arsenals that can devastate each other, and this is still a period of transition in our relationships.
We have worked together in many ways: signed an agreement of cooperation between Russia and NATO, served with Russian troops in Bosnia and Kosovo. But while we are no longer adversaries, we are not yet real allies.
Therefore, for them, as well as for us, maintaining strategic stability increases trust and confidence on both sides; it reduces the risk of confrontation; it makes it possible to build an even better partnership, and an even safer world.
Now, here's the issue: NMD if deployed would require us either to adjust the treaty or to withdraw from it, not because NMD poses a challenge to the strategic stability I just discussed, but because by its very words, NMD (sic) prohibits any national missile defense.
What we should want is to both explore the most effective defenses possible, not only for ourselves, but for all other law-abiding states and to maintain our strategic stability with Russia. Thus far, Russia has been reluctant to agree, fearing I think, frankly, that in some sense this system or its future--some future incarnation of it could threaten the reliability of its deterrent and therefore strategic stability.
Nevertheless, at our summit in Moscow in June, President Putin and I did agree that the world has changed since the ABM Treaty was signed 28 years ago, and that the proliferation of missile technology has resulted in new threats that may require amending that treaty. And again I say, these threats are not threats to the United States alone. Russia agrees that there is an emerging missile threat. In fact, given its place on the map, it is particularly vulnerable to this emerging threat.
In time, I hope the United States can narrow our differences with Russia on this issue. The course I have chosen today gives the United States more time to pursue that and we will use it. President Putin and I have agreed to intensify our work on strategic defense while pursuing, in parallel, deeper arms reductions in START III.
He and I have instructed our experts to develop further cooperative initiatives in areas such as theater missile defense, early warning, and missile threat discussions for our meeting just next week in New York.
Apart from the Russians, another critical diplomatic consideration in the NMD decision is the view of our NATO allies. They have all made clear that they hope the United States will pursue strategic defense in a way that preserves, not abrogates, the ABM Treaty.
If we decide to proceed with NMD deployment we must have their support, because key components of NMD would be based on their territories.
The decision I have made also gives the United States time to answer our allies' questions, and consult further on the path ahead.
Finally, we must consider the impact of a decision to deploy on security in Asia. As the next president makes a deployment decision, he will need to avoid stimulating an already dangerous regional nuclear capability, from China to South Asia.
Now, let me be clear. No nation can ever have a veto over American security: even if the United States and Russia cannot reach agreement; even if we cannot secure the support of our allies at first; even if we conclude that the Chinese will respond to NMD by increasing their arsenal of nuclear weapons substantially, with a corollary inevitable impact in India and then in Pakistan.
The next president may, nevertheless, decide that our interests in security in the 21st century dictate that we go forward with deployment of NMD. But we can never afford to overlook the fact that the actions and reactions of others in this increasingly interdependent world do bear on our security.
Clearly, therefore, it would be far better to move forward in the context of the ABM Treaty and allied support. Our efforts to make that possible have not been completed.
For me, the bottom line on this decision is this: Because the emerging missile threat is real, we have an obligation to pursue a missile defense system that could enhance our security. We have made progress. But we should move--we should not move forward until we have absolute confidence that the system will work, and until we have made every reasonable diplomatic effort to minimize the cost of deployment and maximize the benefit, as I said, not only to America's security, but to the security of law-abiding nations everywhere subject to the same threat.
I am convinced that America and the world will be better off if we explore the frontiers of strategic defenses while continuing to pursue arms control, to stand with our allies and to work with Russia and others to stop the spread of deadly weapons.
I strongly believe this is the best course for the United States and, therefore, the decision I have reached today is in the best security interests of the United States.
In short, we need to move forward with realism, with steadiness and with prudence, not dismissing the threat we face or assuming we can meet it while ignoring our overall strategic environment, including the interests and concerns of our allies, friends and other nations.
A national missile defense, if deployed, should be part of a larger strategy to preserve and enhance the peace, strength and security we now enjoy and to build an even safer world.
I have tried to maximize the ability of the next president to pursue that strategy.
In so doing, I have tried to maximize the chance that all you young students will live in a safer, more humane, more positively interdependent world. I hope I have done so. I believe I have.
Thank you very much.