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2016 House Of Representatives Primary Votes: State-By-State Breakdown

Aug 24, 2016

Despite a declining vote, the Coalition and the ALP maintained their dominance of the House of Representatives in the July 2 double dissolution.

The Coalition (Liberal, Liberal National, Nationals, Country Liberals) and ALP polled 76.77% of the nationwide primary vote, down 2.16% from 78.93% in 2013. They secured 145 (96.7%) of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

The Big Two + Greens

The Greens polled 10.23% of the primary vote, up 1.58% from their 2013 tally of 8.65%. Adam Bandt consolidated his hold on Melbourne but the party failed to win any more lower house seats.

The Coalition, ALP and Greens combined polled 87% of first preference (primary) votes nationally, marginally down from 87.58% in 2013. They won 146 (97.3%) of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

The Greens maintained their influence with the lion’s share of preferences. These preferences were vital to the ALP holding 8 of its seats and winning another 7 from the Liberal Party.

A Big Field of Micro Parties With Micro Votes

There were 42 parties that contested at least one seat each. They polled a total of 10.17%. Only the Nick Xenophon Team (Mayo) and Katter’s Australian Party (Kennedy) won seats.

The majority of micro parties (32 of 42) contested 10 or fewer seats. Twenty-four of these contested 5 or fewer seats. Whilst 10 parties ran more than 10 candidates each, they all nominated candidates for fewer than half the seats in the House. Family First ran in 65 seats, the Christian Democratic Party in 55 and the Animal Justice Party in 41.

The votes for micro parties were derisory, with 38 of the 42 failing to make it to 1% nationally. Moreover, 27 polled less than 0.1% nationally. The other 11 polled no higher than 0.7%. [Read more…]

Filed Under: 2016 Federal Election, A.L.P., D.L.P., Election Statistics, Greens, House of Reps, Independents, Liberal National Party, Liberal Party, One Nation, Palmer United Party, Primary Votes, The Nationals, Turnbull Tagged With: , , , , ,

Government’s Victory Assured But Still No Definite Results In Key Seats

Jul 08, 2016

10.00pm – The Turnbull government’s position improved in counting of House of Representatives seats today but an absolute majority of 76 seats is still not confirmed.

There is no change to the standing of the various parties tonight. The Coalition has 74 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.

The ALP remains ahead in all of the 5 remaining doubtful seats – Capricornia, Flynn, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Cowan. If these leads are maintained, the Coalition will finish with 74 seats, the ALP 71, and Others 5.

However, the ALP’s lead narrowed in 4 seats. In Capricornia, the ALP’s lead fell from 476 to 174. A total of 9,868 declaration votes remain to be counted, including 4,711 postals and 3,268 absentee votes. The LNP has been receiving 57.54% of postal votes, but no absentees have yet been counted. The ALP received 50.67% of absentees in the last election.

In Flynn, the ALP’s lead has shrunk from 646 to just 7. There are 7,734 declaration votes still to count, including 4,640 postals and 1,728 absentees. The LNP has been receiving 63.93% of postals. In 2013, the LNP also garnered 57.19% of absentees. At some point, Flynn is expected to move into the Coalition’s column. [Read more…]

Filed Under: 2016 Federal Election, A.L.P., House of Reps, Liberal National Party, Liberal Party, The Nationals, Turnbull Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , ,

Turnbull Likely To Win Narrowly As Voters Punish Coalition; ALP Secures Nationwide Swing Of 3.18% But Falls Short

Jul 03, 2016

Hung Parliament Still Possible; Many Close Seats; Nationwide Swing Delivers ALP Gains; Xenophon Wins Lower House Seat; Pauline Hanson, Derryn Hinch And Jacqui Lambie Elected To Senate

TurnbullPrime Minister Malcolm Turnbull addressed Liberal supporters in Sydney last night

The Turnbull coalition government is clinging to office, following yesterday’s federal election, and may yet face a hung parliament controlled by crossbenchers not necessarily sympathetic to it. In a post-midnight speech, the Prime Minister insisted the coalition would be able to form a majority government.

A nationwide 3.18% swing towards the ALP sees the coalition leading the two-party-preferred vote with 50.01%. Every state and territory swung to the ALP, the Northern Territory leading the field with 7.37% and delivering Solomon to the ALP. The smallest swing was 0.68% in the Australian Capital Territory, where the ALP already held both seats and polled 61.73% of the two-party vote.

There was a 3.64% swing to the ALP in New South Wales. The ALP has won Banks, Barton, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie and Paterson.

In Victoria, the swing was 2.13% but it appears that only one seat has changed hands. The ALP lost Chisholm, the eastern suburban Melbourne electorate held since 1998 by the former Speaker, Anna Burke. The Greens came close to winning Batman and counting may yet throw Melbourne Ports into doubt for the ALP.

In Queensland, a swing of 2.75% delivered Longman to the ALP and ended the two-term career of 26-year-old Wyatt Roy. The LNP electorates of Capricornia, Forde and Petrie are too close to call. Hinkler may also be in play.

In Western Australia, a 3.82% swing has delivered the new electorate of Burt to the ALP, giving it 4 of the 16 seats.

Tasmania swung decisively by 6.33% to the ALP and it picked up 3 seats lost in 2013: Bass, Braddon and Lyons.

In South Australia, a swing of 4.44% saw two seats change hands. The ALP’s Steve Georganas regained Hindmarsh, which he lost in 2013. The Liberal Party lost the seat of Mayo to the Nick Xenophon Team. NXT may yet have a chance of taking the large country electorate of Grey.

A range of commentators last night agreed that the coalition would likely be able to form a government with 76-78 seats. The large number of close results means that it will be up to ten days before the results are clear.

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Triumphant Shorten Says The ALP Is Back; Turnbull Delivers Late-Night Off-Key Speech To Supporters

The closeness of the count delayed the appearance of the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader. Shorten appeared first, after 11pm. He told supporters in Melbourne that the ALP was “back”. He reiterated his campaign themes and said that the ALP would save Medicare “in government or opposition”.

Malcolm Turnbull spoke to Liberal supporters at 12.30am, delivering a speech widely panned as off-key and inappropriate. Turnbull spoke at length about thuggery in the construction industry and defended his decision to call the double dissolution. He insisted that the coalition would be able to form a majority government.

  • Watch Shorten’s speech (11m)
  • Listen to Shorten (11m)
  • Watch Turnbull’s speech (16m)
  • Listen to Turnbull (16m)

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Windsor and Oakeshott Defeated; Existing Crossbenchers Re-Elected

Tony Windsor, the former member for New England, failed to defeat Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce. Windsor polled 29.73% but Joyce won the seat outright with a primary vote of 52.09%. [Read more…]

Filed Under: 2016 Federal Election, A.L.P., Audio, Greens, Liberal National Party, Liberal Party, One Nation, The Nationals, Turnbull, Video Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Preferential Voting In Action: Denison 2010

Mar 01, 2015

The Tasmanian electorate of Denison at the 2010 Federal Election is an interesting case study of preferential voting in action.

The seat had been held by the ALP since 1987, although the sitting member, Duncan Kerr, retired at the election. The Labor, Liberal and Greens candidates were joined by a candidate from the Socialist Alliance and an independent, Andrew Wilkie.

The image below shows that Wilkie came third on primary votes, behind the Labor and Liberal candidates. The Greens were in fourth place and the Socialist Alliance in fifth. No candidate had an absolute majority of 50% + 1. This meant that preferences had to be distributed until someone secured 50% + 1.

Because she had the lowest number of votes, the Socialist Alliance candidate was excluded first. The allocation of her preferences did not change the order: the ALP still led, the Liberals were second and Wilkie remained in third place. [Read more…]

Filed Under: 2010 Federal Election, Election Statistics, Primary Votes, Two-Party-Preferred Tagged With: , ,
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