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Seats That Swung To The Coalition In The 2016 Federal Election

As counting proceeds in the 2016 House of Representatives elections, it appears that only 16 seats resisted the nationwide swing to the ALP.

Fifteen seats held by the Liberal Party and 1 seat held by The Nationals recorded swings away from the ALP. Thirteen of these seats were already held by the Coalition.

The swings range from 0.09% in Cook to 3.04% in Deakin.

The Liberal Party won just one seat from the ALP, the Melbourne electorate of Chisholm, with a swing of 2.91%.

The national two-party-preferred swing against the Coalition currently stands at 3.16%. Every State and Territory swung to the ALP, ranging from 0.72% in the Australian Capital Territory to 8.90% in South Australia.

The Coalition won the State two-party-preferred contest in NSW (50.42%), Queensland (53.95%) and Western Australia (54.54%). [Read more…]


Is The Ground Shifting?

With the Federal election now only months away, speculation about the likely result is taking on a distinctly different tone from that which has prevailed for much of the year.

In the words of Laurie Oakes in the latest edition of The Bulletin, “you can feel the ground moving. Things are looking better for John Howard, shakier for Kim Beazley.”

The year began with opinion polls showing the coalition struggling federally and in all States. Since 1998, the ALP has won government in Tasmania, Victoria and Western Australia. It has been overwhelmingly re-elected in New South Wales and Queensland. [Read more…]


Aston By-Election (2001)

The Aston by-election was caused by the death of the Liberal member, Peter Nugent, on April 24, 2001.

AstonNugent first won the seat in 1990, holding it again in the elections of 1993, 1996 and 1998.

In 1998, Nugent’s two-party-preferred margin was 4.24%.

The by-election was by Chris Pearce for the Liberal Party with 50.58% of the two-party vote. There was a two-party swing of 3.66% against the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party primary vote declined by 7.76% to 40.73%. The ALP’s primary vote also fell by 1.55% to 36.96%. [Read more…]


More Trouble For Howard: By-Election In Crucial Melbourne Electorate

The death overnight of the Liberal member for Aston, Peter Nugent, will cause a by-election in the eastern suburban electorate in Melbourne.

NugentThe Liberal Party holds the seat by a margin of 4.24%.

Nugent had represented the seat since 1990, defeating Labor’s John Saunderson in that year and holding the seat in 1993, 1996 and 1998.

In 1998, Nugent held Aston with 54.24% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 45.76% for the ALP. [Read more…]