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Undecided Seats: Turnbull Edges Towards Narrow Victory

11.45pm – A path to a narrow victory for the Turnbull government emerged in today’s counting of votes for seats in the House of Representatives.

The five undecided seats in which the Coalition previously led have now been listed as settled: Gilmore, Chisholm, Dunkley, Barker and Grey. In all of these the Liberal Party’s lead grew as postal and other declaration votes were added to the count. In the case of the latter two South Australian electorates, where the Nick Xenophon Team emerged as the main opposition to the Liberals, the counting of two-candidate-preferred has confirmed the seats as retained by the Liberals.

Similarly, I have removed Melbourne Ports from the list of undecided seats. Preference flows mean that the seat is not likely to see the Greens take second place ahead of the ALP.

However, counting today revealed that the Queensland electorate of Flynn has come into play. This seat had been classified as an ALP gain but counting of postal votes saw a large drop in the ALP’s lead, from 1824 to 1065. LNP officials are said to be very confident that a 65% flow of preferences from postal votes makes the seat winnable.

These changes mean that the Coalition now has 73 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5. [Read more…]


Update On Undecided Seats – Hung Parliament Looks Most Likely

11.39pm – Today I have removed 4 seats from the list of undecideds.

The 4 seats no longer considered undecided are: Robertson, Batman, La Trobe and Petrie.

Their removal means that the Coalition now has 68 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.

Of the 11 remaining seats in doubt, the Coalition is ahead in 5 and the ALP is ahead in 6. If these seats were to stay that way, the Coalition would finish with 73 seats, the ALP 72, and Others 5. The government would be three seats short of an absolute majority and we would have a hung Parliament.

Many media reports say there are only 8 or 9 doubtful seats. I have included Barker and Grey because the Australian Electoral Commission has not finished the reordering of two-party-preferred votes (Labor v. Liberal) to two-candidate-preferred (Liberal v. Xenophon). Both seats are likely to remain with the Liberals.

I have also included Melbourne Ports in the list of doubtful seats. There is a possibility that the full distribution of preferences could see the Greens overtake the ALP and move into second place. ALP preferences could then elect either the Green or Liberal candidate. The incumbent Labor MP, Michael Danby, issued a how-to-vote card that placed the Liberal candidate ahead of the Green. This adds an extra complication to predictions for this seat.

Ten seats in the table all have a margin of close-to or less than 1000 votes. Most have a margin of less than 1%. Experience shows that a margin of 1000 votes is unlikely to be reversed by postal, absent and declaration votes, although this varies widely between electorates.

There is a case to be made that Forde is the only doubtful seat left, but such a judgment is somewhat premature. The picture should be clearer by the end of Wednesday, July 6, after the counting of more postal votes.
[Read more…]


House Of Representatives Undecided Seats: Latest Figures

These are the latest figures for seats that remain undecided in the House of Representatives.

The 15 seats in the table all have a margin of close-to or less than 1000 votes. Most have a margin of less than 1%. Experience shows that a margin of 1000 votes is unlikely to be reversed by postal, absent and declaration votes.

Of the 15 seats, the Coalition is ahead in 7, the ALP is ahead in 7 and the Nick Xenophon Team leads in 1.

On current counting, the Coalition and ALP each have a definite 65 seats, although estimates vary. If the Coalition were to maintain its lead in the 7 seats it is ahead in, it would have 72 seats, four short of an absolute majority of 76. If the ALP were to maintain its lead in the other 7 seats, it would have 72 seats, four short of an absolute majority. A government victory with 76 seats is possible, but the coalition will need to capture 11 seats from the list below. It cannot win Batman.

The seats of Batman, La Trobe and Melbourne Ports, in Victoria, and Robertson, in NSW, are not seriously in doubt. In Queensland, it is unlikely that Capricornia, Herbert and Petrie will change. In South Australia, it is not expected that NXT will win Barker, but very few votes have been posted as yet. Given the large number of pre-poll and postal votes, I have adopted an ultra-cautious approach to the list but I expect to be able to remove seats from this list in the next couple of days.

Significant new figures will not be available until Tuesday, July 5, when the counting of postal votes begins.

The table will be updated each day until all seats are decided. [Read more…]


Hockey Appoints Dumped Liberal MP To Foreign Investment Review Board

In a late Friday, pre-Christmas, announcement, Treasurer Joe Hockey has appointed a deselected Liberal MP, Patrick Secker, to the Foreign Investment Review Board.

SeckerThe appointment is part-time for five years.

In his announcement, Hockey said: “Mr Secker has extensive experience in agriculture and agribusiness over a number of decades. His appointment to the Foreign Investment Review Board fulfils a commitment by the Government to expand this area of the Board’s expertise.”

Secker was the Liberal member for Barker in South Australia for 15 years from 1998. He left the Parliament at this year’s election, having lost preselection to Mount Gambier lawyer Tony Pasin in March 2012. In a plebiscite of 282 party members, Secker won just 78 votes to Pasin’s 164, with a third candidate polling 40 votes. [Read more…]


Tony Pasin (Lib – Barker) – First Speech

Tony Pasin was first elected as the Liberal member for Barker at the 2013 federal election.

Pasin, 36, is a lawyer. He was born in Mt Gambier and served on the Mt Gambier City Council between 2003-10.

  • Listen to Pasin’s maiden speech (20m)
  • Watch Pasin (20m)

Hansard transcript of Tony Pasin’s maiden speech to the House of Representatives.

Mr PASIN (Barker) (09:02): Madam Speaker, in addressing this place for the first time, I add my voice to the chorus of congratulations on your election to the speakership. I am proud to have voted to elect you as the first conservative female Speaker—based on your merits and achievements, as all appointments should be. I am certain that in the discharge of your duties you will act with fairness and decorum, and ensure that my colleagues and I maintain our respect for this place and each other. [Read more…]


Patrick Secker (Lib – Barker) – Valedictory Speech

Patrick Secker was first elected as the Liberal member for Barker at the 1998 federal election.

SeckerHe was re-elected in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010. In March 2012, he lost preselection to Mount Gambier lawyer Tony Pasin. In a preselection ballot, Secker polled 78 votes to Pasin’s 164, with a third candidate securing 40 votes.

Secker was Opposition Whip before leaving the Parliament. He never served as a minister. [Read more…]