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Turnbull Seems Set For Floor Majority Of Three In 45th Parliament

Jul 12, 2016

11.50pm – The two remaining undecided seats in the 2016 federal election are no closer to finalisation, following another day’s counting. However, the government is now likely to have a majority of three in the new House.

The ALP’s lead in Hindmarsh remains unchanged at 582 votes. There are 6,125 votes still to count: 2,644 absents, 1,599 provisionals, 1,130 declaration pre-poll, and 752 postals. There is no change to the expectation that Steve Georganas will regain the seat he previously held for the ALP.

In Herbert, the ALP’s lead narrowed again, from 178 votes to 66. There are 6,016 votes left to count: 2,696 postal, 1,747 declaration pre-poll, 1,002 provisional and 571 absent. The ALP is only besting the LNP on absent votes and there is now an expectation that this seat is about to move decisively to the LNP.

If the ALP wins Hindmarsh and the Coalition wins Herbert, the final tally for the 45th Parliament will be: Coalition 77, ALP 68, Others 5. This is a Coalition majority of four over all other groups and a majority of three on the floor of the House, after a Speaker has been provided. [Read more…]

Filed Under: 2016 Federal Election, A.L.P., House of Reps, Liberal National Party, Liberal Party, Turnbull Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

Coalition Secures Absolute Majority Of 76; Labor Claims Cowan; Just Two Seats Still Undecided

Jul 11, 2016

11.45pm – As election counting entered its second week today, the ALP claimed victory in Cowan, whilst the LNP drew further ahead in Capricornia and Flynn, securing an absolute majority of 76 seats for the Turnbull government.

The ALP still leads in Hindmarsh and Herbert, the two remaining undecided seats in the House of Representatives.

In Cowan, the ALP’s Anne Aly claimed victory and will become the first female Muslim to be elected to the House. A batch of votes that had been wrongly counted for the Liberals delivered several hundred votes to Aly. Her 946 vote lead, combined with preference flows means that Cowan can now be taken out of the doubtful list. There are 6,942 votes still to count. The ALP now has a confirmed 67 seats.

The ALP’s lead in Hindmarsh remains at 583 votes. This seat will probably come out of the doubtful list in the next day or two, since the ALP lead seems firm. There are 5,307 votes still to count. The Liberals’ 53.81% advantage in postals is offset by the ALP’s 56.06% advantage in absentees.

In the Queensland seats of Capricornia and Flynn, the LNP extended its leads. Both seats have now been removed from the doubtful list.

In Capricornia, the LNP lifted its weekend lead of 148 votes to 691. There are 3,475 votes to count and it is clear that the LNP will retain the seat. A traditionally Labor electorate, Capricornia was lost by the ALP in 1975 and 1996. In both cases, it was regained at the following election. Michelle Landry becomes the first non-Labor member for Capricornia to win consecutive elections since Henry Pearce, who held it between 1949 and 1961. Pearce is now 98 years old and is one of only two surviving members from the 1949 parliament. [Read more…]

Filed Under: 2016 Federal Election, A.L.P., Liberal National Party, Liberal Party, The Nationals, Turnbull Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

As Turnbull Claims Election Victory, Coalition Seems On Track For 76 Seats

Jul 10, 2016

11.55pm – Eight days after the Federal Election, Malcolm Turnbull today claimed victory, following a concession by Bill Shorten.

In weekend counting, the LNP’s position has strengthened in two seats, as has the ALP’s. If the current leads hold, the Coalition will end up holding 76 seats, the ALP 69, and Others 5.

There now seems to be general agreement that the ALP is likely to take the electorates of Hindmarsh and Cowan, with the possibility of securing Herbert.

In Hindmarsh, the ALP leads by 348, with 7,766 declaration votes still to count. In Cowan, the ALP leads by 487, with 8,476 to count. Whilst narrow, these leads have firmed and the ALP is almost certain to retain both seats.

In the Queensland seats of Capricornia and Flynn, the LNP seems well-placed to hold both. In Capricornia, the LNP took the lead on Saturday and is now ahead by 148 votes, with 7,186 declaration votes still to count. The LNP is winning 58.57% of postals and 50.38% of absentees. In Flynn, the LNP also took the lead on Saturday and is now ahead by 391 votes, with 5,783 votes to count. The LNP is winning 63.54% of postals but the ALP is winning 54.64% of absentees. [Read more…]

Filed Under: 2016 Federal Election, A.L.P., House of Reps, Liberal National Party, Liberal Party, Turnbull Tagged With: , , , ,

Government’s Victory Assured But Still No Definite Results In Key Seats

Jul 08, 2016

10.00pm – The Turnbull government’s position improved in counting of House of Representatives seats today but an absolute majority of 76 seats is still not confirmed.

There is no change to the standing of the various parties tonight. The Coalition has 74 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.

The ALP remains ahead in all of the 5 remaining doubtful seats – Capricornia, Flynn, Herbert, Hindmarsh and Cowan. If these leads are maintained, the Coalition will finish with 74 seats, the ALP 71, and Others 5.

However, the ALP’s lead narrowed in 4 seats. In Capricornia, the ALP’s lead fell from 476 to 174. A total of 9,868 declaration votes remain to be counted, including 4,711 postals and 3,268 absentee votes. The LNP has been receiving 57.54% of postal votes, but no absentees have yet been counted. The ALP received 50.67% of absentees in the last election.

In Flynn, the ALP’s lead has shrunk from 646 to just 7. There are 7,734 declaration votes still to count, including 4,640 postals and 1,728 absentees. The LNP has been receiving 63.93% of postals. In 2013, the LNP also garnered 57.19% of absentees. At some point, Flynn is expected to move into the Coalition’s column. [Read more…]

Filed Under: 2016 Federal Election, A.L.P., House of Reps, Liberal National Party, Liberal Party, The Nationals, Turnbull Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , ,
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