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Local Issues As An Influence On Voting Behaviour

Local issues may be strong enough to swing votes in elections. This is particularly true of State elections, but can also apply to Federal elections.

However, electoral behaviour tends to more uniform than many people think, so it is wise not to over-estimate this factor. In most elections, the state- or nation-wide swing is generally fairly consistent, but variations do occur, especially between states.

Local issues may swing some votes but whether this is decisive is open to question. [Read more…]

Kennett Government Struggling To Survive; Big Anti-Liberal Swing; Rural Areas Turn Against Coalition; Unexpected Result Stuns Victoria

The Kennett coalition government is struggling to survive a large swing against it as counting continues in today’s election.

At 9pm tonight, it was not clear that the Government would even secure a majority in the lower house. The government may be forced to rely on independents to retain government.

The ALP has won the following seats from the coalition: Oakleigh, Narracan, Ballarat East, Ballarat West, Ripon, Tullamarine and Gisborne. The loss of Gisborne by the government is a major blow, since Health Minister Rob Knowles was tipped as the next deputy leader.

The election may ultimately hinge on the result in Frankston East where the election has been declared invalid following the death of the sitting independent and former Liberal member, Peter McClellan. [Read more…]