11.45pm – A path to a narrow victory for the Turnbull government emerged in today’s counting of votes for seats in the House of Representatives.
The five undecided seats in which the Coalition previously led have now been listed as settled: Gilmore, Chisholm, Dunkley, Barker and Grey. In all of these the Liberal Party’s lead grew as postal and other declaration votes were added to the count. In the case of the latter two South Australian electorates, where the Nick Xenophon Team emerged as the main opposition to the Liberals, the counting of two-candidate-preferred has confirmed the seats as retained by the Liberals.
Similarly, I have removed Melbourne Ports from the list of undecided seats. Preference flows mean that the seat is not likely to see the Greens take second place ahead of the ALP.
However, counting today revealed that the Queensland electorate of Flynn has come into play. This seat had been classified as an ALP gain but counting of postal votes saw a large drop in the ALP’s lead, from 1824 to 1065. LNP officials are said to be very confident that a 65% flow of preferences from postal votes makes the seat winnable.
These changes mean that the Coalition now has 73 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5. [Read more…]