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2016 Primary Vote Winners, Preference Vote Losers

There were 16 seats in the 2016 federal election where the primary vote leaders were defeated after the full distribution of preferences.

The ALP benefited in 15 seats and the Nick Xenophon Team in one. In 14 seats, (7 held by the ALP and 7 by the Coalition), the coalition candidate led on primary votes but the seat was won by the ALP after preferences. In one seat, the Liberal lead was overtaken by the Xenophon candidate. In another, the ALP overcame a Greens lead.

The 16 seats were spread across the states: Queensland (4), Victoria (3), South Australia (3), New South Wales (2), Western Australia (2) and Tasmania (2).

Overall, 48 (32%) of the 150 House of Representatives electorates were decided on primary votes, whilst 102 (68%) required preference distribution to obtain a winner.

It is worth noting that 86 of the 102 electorates were won after preferences by the candidates who led the primary vote count. Even with preferences, a primary vote lead is difficult to overcome. [Read more…]


Seats That Swung To The Coalition In The 2016 Federal Election

As counting proceeds in the 2016 House of Representatives elections, it appears that only 16 seats resisted the nationwide swing to the ALP.

Fifteen seats held by the Liberal Party and 1 seat held by The Nationals recorded swings away from the ALP. Thirteen of these seats were already held by the Coalition.

The swings range from 0.09% in Cook to 3.04% in Deakin.

The Liberal Party won just one seat from the ALP, the Melbourne electorate of Chisholm, with a swing of 2.91%.

The national two-party-preferred swing against the Coalition currently stands at 3.16%. Every State and Territory swung to the ALP, ranging from 0.72% in the Australian Capital Territory to 8.90% in South Australia.

The Coalition won the State two-party-preferred contest in NSW (50.42%), Queensland (53.95%) and Western Australia (54.54%). [Read more…]


Terri Butler (ALP-Griffith) – First Speech

Terri Butler was elected as the ALP member for Griffith at a by-election on February 8.

Butler

Butler, an industrial lawyer with Maurice Blackburn, replaced the former prime minister, Kevin Rudd, who had represented the electorate since 1998. Aside from one term from 1996-98, the seat has been represented by the ALP since 1977.

Griffith is a mostly residential electorate in southern Brisbane. The main suburbs include Balmoral, Bulimba, Camp Hill, Carina Heights, Coorparoo, Dutton Park, East Brisbane, Greenslopes, Highgate Hill, Hawthorne, Kangaroo Point, Morningside, Norman Park, Seven Hills, South Brisbane, Woolloongabba and parts of Annerley, Cannon Hill, Carina, Holland Park, Holland Park West, Mount Gravatt East, Murarrie, Tarragindi and West End.

This is Butler’s maiden speech to the House of Representatives.

  • Listen to Butler (22m)
  • Watch Butler (22m)

Hansard transcript of Terri Butler’s maiden speech to the House of Representatives.

Butler

Ms BUTLER (Griffith) (09:59): Madam Speaker, I acknowledge the Ngunnawal and Ngambri peoples, the custodians of the land on which we meet. I pay my respects to elders past and present. I am honoured today to come into this chamber as the elected representative for the people of Griffith, on Brisbane’s south side, so I also pay my respects to the first nations people of that land, the Ugarapul, Yuggera, Jagera and Turrbal peoples. [Read more…]


Terri Butler Wins Griffith By-Election For ALP; Status Quo Result Sees 0.68% Swing To Liberals

Terri Butler will become the new Labor member for Griffith, following her by-election victory in the Brisbane-based electorate vacated by former prime minister Kevin Rudd.

Butler

At the close of counting tonight, Butler had recorded a two-party-preferred vote of 52.33%. This is a swing against the ALP of 0.68% since the September 2013 general election. [Read more…]


Abbott Launches Liberal Party Campaign For Griffith By-Election

The Liberal Party has launched its campaign for next weekend’s by-election in Griffith.

Glasson

The Liberal National candidate for the Brisbane electorate, Dr. Bill Glasson, is contesting the by-election caused by the retirement of former prime minister Kevin Rudd who held the seat for 15 years. [Read more…]


Bill Shorten Launches Terri Butler’s ALP Campaign For Griffith By-Election

Bill Shorten has launched the ALP’s campaign for the Griffith by-election with a speech that focussed on the performance of the Abbott and Newman governments.

Shorten

Shorten said Griffith needed “a local champion on the national stage”. He said the Abbott government “came to power saying health and education were safe” but now says through its Commission of Audit everything “is on the table”. [Read more…]


Shorten Campaigns In Griffith

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten was in the Brisbane electorate of Griffith again today, campaigning for the February 8 by-election to replace Kevin Rudd.

Shorten

The ALP has most to lose from a poor result in Griffith. No government has won a seat off the official opposition since 1920. Whilst victory for the ALP candidate, Terri Butler, will be portrayed as evidence of a struggling Abbott government and an unpopular Newman government, a defeat for the ALP would reduce it to 54 seats in the House and jolt it back to the reality of its poor electoral position following the 2013 federal election. [Read more…]


Eleven Candidates To Contest Griffith By-Election

Eleven candidates have nominated for the Griffith by-election to be held on February 8.

This is the same number of candidates who contested the seat at the 2013 federal election. Kevin Rudd won the seat for the ALP last year but resigned from Parliament on November 22.

The candidates, in the order they will appear on the ballot paper, are:

  1. Timothy LawrenceStable Population Party
  2. Geoff EbbsThe Greens
  3. Christopher David WilliamsFamily First Party
  4. Karel BoeleIndependent
  5. Anthony AckroydBullet Train for Australia
  6. Anne ReidSecular Party of Australia
  7. Terri ButlerAustralian Labor Party
  8. Melanie Rose ThomasPirate Party Australia
  9. Travis James WindsorIndependent
  10. Ray SawyerKatter’s Australian Party
  11. Bill GlassonLiberal National Party of Queensland

Ebbs, Reid and Glasson all contested the seat last year. Sawyer contested Fairfax.

To the extent that a donkey vote exists, the order of names on the ballot paper favours the ALP.

The LNP candidate, former AMA President Bill Glasson, needs a swing of 3.01% to take the seat from the ALP. The ALP has won the seat at every federal election since 1977, except for 1996. Kevin Rudd held it at every federal election from 1998.

History suggests the ALP will retain the seat. Since 1901, a government has only taken a seat from the opposition in a by-election on one occasion.


Griffith By-Election Set For February 8

The Griffith by-election will be held on February 8, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Bronwyn Bishop, has announced.

The by-election has been caused by the resignation of former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd who had held the seat since 1998.

Under Section 33 of the Constitution, the Speaker is responsible for the issue of writs for vacancies. The writ will be issued today, with the rolls closing next Monday. Nominations close on January 16.

The by-election will be held the weekend before Parliament resumes for 2014.

The ALP holds the seat with a margin of 3.01%. There was a 5.45% swing against Rudd at last year’s federal election. In 2010, there was a 3.86% swing against Rudd. When Rudd led the ALP into government in 2007 he received 62.32% of the two-party-preferred vote in Griffith. [Read more…]


Speaker Bronwyn Bishop Reports Kevin Rudd’s Resignation To The House

The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Bronwyn Bishop, today reported to the House that she had received the resignation of Kevin Rudd as member for Griffith.

Bishop

Rudd’s resignation was received on November 22. Under Section 37 of the Constitution, a member may resign in writing to the Speaker.

Parliamentary practice and convention requires that the Speaker inform the House of resignations and other matters relating to the operation of the chamber. [Read more…]