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Eleven Candidates To Contest Griffith By-Election

Eleven candidates have nominated for the Griffith by-election to be held on February 8.

This is the same number of candidates who contested the seat at the 2013 federal election. Kevin Rudd won the seat for the ALP last year but resigned from Parliament on November 22.

The candidates, in the order they will appear on the ballot paper, are:

  1. Timothy LawrenceStable Population Party
  2. Geoff EbbsThe Greens
  3. Christopher David WilliamsFamily First Party
  4. Karel BoeleIndependent
  5. Anthony AckroydBullet Train for Australia
  6. Anne ReidSecular Party of Australia
  7. Terri ButlerAustralian Labor Party
  8. Melanie Rose ThomasPirate Party Australia
  9. Travis James WindsorIndependent
  10. Ray SawyerKatter’s Australian Party
  11. Bill GlassonLiberal National Party of Queensland

Ebbs, Reid and Glasson all contested the seat last year. Sawyer contested Fairfax.

To the extent that a donkey vote exists, the order of names on the ballot paper favours the ALP.

The LNP candidate, former AMA President Bill Glasson, needs a swing of 3.01% to take the seat from the ALP. The ALP has won the seat at every federal election since 1977, except for 1996. Kevin Rudd held it at every federal election from 1998.

History suggests the ALP will retain the seat. Since 1901, a government has only taken a seat from the opposition in a by-election on one occasion.


Griffith By-Election Set For February 8

The Griffith by-election will be held on February 8, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Bronwyn Bishop, has announced.

The by-election has been caused by the resignation of former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd who had held the seat since 1998.

Under Section 33 of the Constitution, the Speaker is responsible for the issue of writs for vacancies. The writ will be issued today, with the rolls closing next Monday. Nominations close on January 16.

The by-election will be held the weekend before Parliament resumes for 2014.

The ALP holds the seat with a margin of 3.01%. There was a 5.45% swing against Rudd at last year’s federal election. In 2010, there was a 3.86% swing against Rudd. When Rudd led the ALP into government in 2007 he received 62.32% of the two-party-preferred vote in Griffith. [Read more…]


Speaker Bronwyn Bishop Reports Kevin Rudd’s Resignation To The House

The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Bronwyn Bishop, today reported to the House that she had received the resignation of Kevin Rudd as member for Griffith.

Bishop

Rudd’s resignation was received on November 22. Under Section 37 of the Constitution, a member may resign in writing to the Speaker.

Parliamentary practice and convention requires that the Speaker inform the House of resignations and other matters relating to the operation of the chamber. [Read more…]


A Week After Announcing His Retirement, Kevin Rudd Still Hasn’t Resigned

A week after announcing his resignation from the House of Representatives, former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has not yet submitted his resignation to the Speaker.

RuddUnder Section 37 of the Constitution, a member resigns “by writing addressed to the Speaker”. As of close of business on Wednesday night (November 20), the Speaker had made no announcement to the House of Rudd’s resignation as the member for Griffith.

Rudd’s biographical details also remain on the Parliament House website.

Rudd has not appeared in the House chamber since announcing his resignation last week. He has not voted in any of the divisions called since then.

Given that a minimum 33 days notice is required for a by-election, it is now not possible for a by-election this year. The end of January is now the likely earliest date for the by-election. [Read more…]


2013 Primary Vote Winners, Preference Vote Losers

There were 15 seats in the 2013 federal election where the primary vote leaders were defeated after the full distribution of preferences.

In 12 seats, all held by the ALP, the coalition candidate led on primary votes but the seat was won by the ALP after preferences. In 3 seats, coalition leads were overtaken by independent or third-party candidates.

The 15 seats were concentrated in Victoria (7), Queensland (5) and New South Wales (3).

Overall, 53 (35.3%) of the 150 House of Representatives electorates were decided on primary votes, whilst 97 (64.7%) required preference distribution to obtain a winner.

It is worth noting that 82 of the 97 electorates were won after preferences by the candidates who led the primary vote count. Even with preferences, a primary vote lead is difficult to overcome. [Read more…]


Can Bill Glasson Topple Kevin Rudd In Griffith?

One of the intriguing aspects of tomorrow’s election is whether Kevin Rudd can hold on in his own seat of Griffith.

Rudd has held Griffith since 1998. He first contested it in 1996 but was defeated. His opponent this year is the former president of the Australian Medical Association, Bill Glasson.

Glasson has fought an intensive ground war in the Brisbane-based electorate over the past year. At least one opinion poll during the campaign has shown him ahead.

The ALP is struggling in Queensland. It currently holds 8 of the 30 electorates and it appears unlikely that it can win anymore. It is in danger of losing seats such as Moreton, Petrie, Lilley and Capricornia.

In the 1996 defeat of the Keating government, the ALP was reduced to two seats in Queensland (Brisbane and Rankin). In the 1975 defeat of the Whitlam government, it was reduced to one seat (Oxley).

If Labor is defeated decisively tomorrow, it is possible that Kevin Rudd could join John Howard (Bennelong 1996) and Stanley Melbourne Bruce (Flinders 1929) as the third prime minister to lose an election and his seat.

  • This video has been produced by Liberal candidate Bill Glasson’s campaign team:

Kevin Rudd’s Plans For 2013

Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has spoken about his plans for election year 2013.

Rudd was interviewed by David Koch on Channel 7’s Sunrise.

The former Labor leader said he would be working in his local community in his Griffith electorate as well as in the wider community in Brisbane, particularly on the question of public sector job losses under the Newman government.

Rudd said he would also be going around the country to support “my Labor colleagues” in their electorates.

Rudd also spoke about his fundraising efforts with Twinings Tea in aid of the Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RPCA).