December 6, 2023
The Liberal candidate for McEwen, Chris Jermyn, has been unable to answer media questions about his party’s policies, after turning up at an ALP event with Bill Shorten.
McEwen is the most marginal seat in the country. Rob Mitchell holds it for the ALP by just 313 votes, or 0.15%.
The footage in the second video is something of a classic of the genre as reporters pursue Jermyn into the venue’s carpark.
There were 15 seats in the 2013 federal election where the primary vote leaders were defeated after the full distribution of preferences.
In 12 seats, all held by the ALP, the coalition candidate led on primary votes but the seat was won by the ALP after preferences. In 3 seats, coalition leads were overtaken by independent or third-party candidates.
The 15 seats were concentrated in Victoria (7), Queensland (5) and New South Wales (3).
Overall, 53 (35.3%) of the 150 House of Representatives electorates were decided on primary votes, whilst 97 (64.7%) required preference distribution to obtain a winner.
It is worth noting that 82 of the 97 electorates were won after preferences by the candidates who led the primary vote count. Even with preferences, a primary vote lead is difficult to overcome.
The ALP’s sitting member in the Victorian electorate of McEwen, Rob Mitchell, is back in the lead as counting continues in the rural seat north of Melbourne.
Counting over the weekend reversed Mitchell’s position. On Thursday night, the ALP was trailing by 396 votes. This narrowed to 153 on Friday night. Yesterday, the ALP was ahead by 97 votes. The Australian Electoral Commission reports that 9,197 envelopes containing absent, provisional, pre-poll and postal votes remain to be counted. Over half of these are pre-poll votes. Postal votes can still be accepted for the next couple of days.
In the Victorian country electorate of Indi, the independent candidate, Cathy McGowan, remains ahead of the sitting Liberal member, Sophie Mirabella, but the her lead is dwindling. McGowan was ahead by 1,100 votes on Thursday. This declined to 895 on Friday. She is now in front by 515 votes with 3,511 votes on hand that haven’t yet been counted.
In the rural Sunshine Coast electorate of Fairfax, Clive Palmer remains 502 votes ahead of the Liberal National Party candidate, Ted O’Brien. Like McGowan in Indi, Palmer was leading by 1,132 on Thursday. This slipped to 718 on Friday. Palmer continues to win only 37% of postal votes. There are 7,491 votes still uncounted.
Counting will continue over the coming days. The count is slowed because of the need to verify the eligibility of each elector who has cast a provisional, absentee or postal vote.
Attention will turn this week to the composition of the new Abbott government. The Prime Minister-elect is expected to announce his ministry today with a swearing-in to take place on Tuesday or Wednesday. Kevin Rudd remains caretaker prime minister until the new ministry is sworn.
Rob Mitchell won the Victorian seat of McEwen for the ALP at the 2010 federal election.
In an election which reduced the Gillard government to minority status, Mitchell’s victory was vital to the government’s survival. He secured a swing of 5.34% and won the seat with 55.32% of the two-party-preferred vote.
Mitchell contested McEwen in 2007, when the sitting Liberal member, Fran Bailey, won by 31 votes. The election result was confirmed by the High Court sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns.
Mitchell was previously a member of the Victorian Legislative Council from 2002 until 2006.