An updated version of the data on this page was published in 2016.
“The ALP is heading for its biggest defeat ever under Gillard,” I was told recently.
The confident assertion promptly fell to pieces when I asked for a definition of “biggest defeat ever”. A garbled account of seats, votes and swings followed. Such are casual political conversations. Few people know the figures.
But the question is a good one. How do you measure the extent of an election defeat? If the Gillard government is annihilated this year, what measures of comparison should we use?
Here’s a table showing ALP statistics for three different measures: the proportion of seats won in the House of Representatives, the two-party-preferred vote, and the primary vote. The ALP’s winning election years are shaded yellow.
The table includes every election since Federation, except for the first three: 1901, 1903 and 1906. These have been excluded since they took place before the formation of the two-party system as we know it. Since 1910, elections have been fought between the ALP and the non-Labor parties under a variety of names.
The ALP has won 14 of the 40 elections held since 1910. I have categorised the 26 elections it has lost into four groups:
- Seven major defeats where the ALP won no more than a third of the seats in the House: 1917, 1925, 1931, 1966, 1975, 1977 and 1996.
- Seven significant defeats where the ALP won between 33% and 40% of the seats: 1919, 1922, 1934, 1937, 1949, 1955 and 1958.
- Nine moderate defeats where the ALP won between 40% and 50% of the seats: 1928, 1951, 1954, 1963, 1969, 1980, 1998, 2001 and 2004.
- Three near misses where the ALP just fell short: 1913, 1940 and 1961.
A.L.P. Performance In Federal Elections | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Election | Leader | Election Won or Lost | Seats Won In House of Representatives | Two-Party-Preferred Vote % | Primary Vote % |
1910
|
Fisher
|
WIN
|
42 / 75 = 56.00%
|
–
|
49.97
|
1913
|
Fisher
|
LOSS
|
37 /75 = 49.33%
|
–
|
48.47
|
1914
|
Fisher
|
WIN
|
42 / 75 = 56.00%
|
–
|
50.89
|
1917
|
Tudor
|
LOSS
|
22/ 75 = 29.33%
|
–
|
43.94
|
1919
|
Tudor
|
LOSS
|
26 / 75 = 34.66%
|
–
|
42.49
|
1922
|
Charlton
|
LOSS
|
29 / 45 = 38.66%
|
–
|
42.30
|
1925
|
Charlton
|
LOSS
|
23 / 75 = 30.66%
|
–
|
45.04
|
1928
|
Scullin
|
LOSS
|
31 / 75 = 41.33%
|
–
|
44.64
|
1929
|
Scullin
|
WIN
|
46 / 75 = 61.33%
|
–
|
48.84
|
1931
|
Scullin
|
LOSS
|
14+4=18 / 75 = 24.00%
|
–
|
27.10+10.57 = 37.67
|
1934
|
Scullin
|
LOSS
|
18+9 = 27 / 74 = 36.48%
|
–
|
26.81+14.37 = 41.18
|
1937
|
Curtin
|
LOSS
|
29 / 74 = 39.19%
|
40.40
|
43.17
|
1940
|
Curtin
|
LOSS
|
32+4=36 / 74 = 48.64%
|
50.30
|
40.16+5.23 = 45.39
|
1943
|
Curtin
|
WIN
|
49 / 74 = 66.21%
|
58.20
|
49.94
|
1946
|
Chifley
|
WIN
|
43 / 74 = 58.10%
|
54.10
|
49.71
|
1949
|
Chifley
|
LOSS
|
47 / 121 = 38.84%
|
49.00
|
45.98
|
1951
|
Chifley
|
LOSS
|
52 / 121 = 42.97%
|
49.30
|
47.63
|
1954
|
Evatt
|
LOSS
|
57 / 121 = 47.10%
|
50.70
|
50.03
|
1955
|
Evatt
|
LOSS
|
47 / 122 = 38.52%
|
45.80
|
44.63
|
1958
|
Evatt
|
LOSS
|
45 / 122 = 36.88%
|
45.90
|
42.81
|
1961
|
Calwell
|
LOSS
|
60 / 122 = 49.18%
|
50.50
|
47.90
|
1963
|
Calwell
|
LOSS
|
50 / 122 = 40.98%
|
47.40
|
45.47
|
1966
|
Calwell
|
LOSS
|
41 / 124 = 33.06%
|
43.10
|
39.98
|
1969
|
Whitlam
|
LOSS
|
59 / 125 = 47.20%
|
50.20
|
46.95
|
1972
|
Whitlam
|
WIN
|
67 / 125 = 53.6%
|
52.70
|
49.59
|
1974
|
Whitlam
|
WIN
|
66 / 127 = 51.96%
|
51.70
|
49.30
|
1975
|
Whitlam
|
LOSS
|
36 / 127 = 28.34%
|
44.30
|
42.84
|
1977
|
Whitlam
|
LOSS
|
38 / 124 = 30.64%
|
45.40
|
39.65
|
1980
|
Hayden
|
LOSS
|
51 / 125 = 40.80%
|
49.60
|
45.15
|
1983
|
Hawke
|
WIN
|
75 / 125 = 60.00%
|
53.23
|
49.48
|
1984
|
Hawke
|
WIN
|
82 / 148 = 55.40%
|
51.77
|
47.55
|
1987
|
Hawke
|
WIN
|
86 / 148 = 58.10%
|
50.83
|
45.76
|
1990
|
Hawke
|
WIN
|
78 / 148 = 52.70%
|
49.90
|
39.44
|
1993
|
Keating
|
WIN
|
80 / 147 = 54.42%
|
51.44
|
44.92
|
1996
|
Keating
|
LOSS
|
49 / 148 = 33.10%
|
46.37
|
38.75
|
1998
|
Beazley
|
LOSS
|
67 / 148 = 45.27%
|
50.98
|
40.10
|
2001
|
Beazley
|
LOSS
|
65 / 150 = 43.33%
|
49.05
|
37.84
|
2004
|
Latham
|
LOSS
|
60 / 150 = 40.00%
|
47.26
|
37.63
|
2007
|
Rudd
|
WIN
|
83 / 150 = 55.33%
|
52.70
|
43.48
|
2010
|
Gillard
|
WIN
|
72 / 150 = 48.00%
|
50.12
|
37.99
|
By any measure, the ALP’s most successful election was John Curtin’s victory in 1943. Curtin won 66.21% of seats in the House. James Scullin won 61.33% in 1929 and Bob Hawke won 60% in 1983.
Curtin’s victory is also the only election in which the ALP polled in excess of 55% of the national two-party-preferred vote. [Note: Early figures for the two-party vote are not shown either because there are no precise figures available or because the election took place before preferential voting was introduced in 1918. Up until 1955, two-party figures contain a small element of estimation because some seats returned a member unopposed.] [Read more…]