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2016 Primary Vote Winners, Preference Vote Losers

There were 16 seats in the 2016 federal election where the primary vote leaders were defeated after the full distribution of preferences.

The ALP benefited in 15 seats and the Nick Xenophon Team in one. In 14 seats, (7 held by the ALP and 7 by the Coalition), the coalition candidate led on primary votes but the seat was won by the ALP after preferences. In one seat, the Liberal lead was overtaken by the Xenophon candidate. In another, the ALP overcame a Greens lead.

The 16 seats were spread across the states: Queensland (4), Victoria (3), South Australia (3), New South Wales (2), Western Australia (2) and Tasmania (2).

Overall, 48 (32%) of the 150 House of Representatives electorates were decided on primary votes, whilst 102 (68%) required preference distribution to obtain a winner.

It is worth noting that 86 of the 102 electorates were won after preferences by the candidates who led the primary vote count. Even with preferences, a primary vote lead is difficult to overcome. [Read more…]


How Well Did Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Do In The Federal Election?

The tables on this page show the level of electoral support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation at the 2016 federal election.

NOTE: This page has been updated with final figures from all House seats and Senate elections. See the updated page HERE.

Hanson

One Nation ran 15 candidates in the House of Representatives, 12 in Queensland and 3 in NSW. It ran a Senate ticket in each State but not in the territories.

Nationally, One Nation polled 4.26% in the Senate, including 9.03% in Queensland, where Pauline Hanson has been elected a senator. A Senate quota is 7.7% of the primary vote in a double dissolution election. Hanson secured 1.17 quotas and will win on primary votes alone. She will return to the Parliament for the first time since she lost the seat of Oxley in 1998. She won Oxley as a disendorsed Liberal candidate in 1996.

In the House of Representatives, One Nation polled 1.28% nationally and 5.48% in Queensland. Even though it only contested 12 seats, it polled the fourth highest proportion of the primary vote in Queensland, behind the LNP (43.15%), the ALP (31.43%) and the Greens (8.51%). Family First and Katter’s Australian Party took the next two places. [Read more…]


2013 Primary Vote Winners, Preference Vote Losers

There were 15 seats in the 2013 federal election where the primary vote leaders were defeated after the full distribution of preferences.

In 12 seats, all held by the ALP, the coalition candidate led on primary votes but the seat was won by the ALP after preferences. In 3 seats, coalition leads were overtaken by independent or third-party candidates.

The 15 seats were concentrated in Victoria (7), Queensland (5) and New South Wales (3).

Overall, 53 (35.3%) of the 150 House of Representatives electorates were decided on primary votes, whilst 97 (64.7%) required preference distribution to obtain a winner.

It is worth noting that 82 of the 97 electorates were won after preferences by the candidates who led the primary vote count. Even with preferences, a primary vote lead is difficult to overcome. [Read more…]


Local Issues As An Influence On Voting Behaviour

Local issues may be strong enough to swing votes in elections. This is particularly true of State elections, but can also apply to Federal elections.

However, electoral behaviour tends to more uniform than many people think, so it is wise not to over-estimate this factor. In most elections, the state- or nation-wide swing is generally fairly consistent, but variations do occur, especially between states.

Local issues may swing some votes but whether this is decisive is open to question. [Read more…]


National Party – Richmond (NSW) Doug Anthony How-To-Vote Card

This is the how-to-vote card for Doug Anthony, the member for Richmond, in the 1977 Federal Election.

Anthony had been the member since 1957, having succeeded his father. In 1977, he was leader of the National Country Party and Deputy Prime Minister in the Fraser government.

He held the seat until his retirement in January 1984, following the coalition’s defeat in 1983. [Read more…]