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Posts tagged as “Robertson”

Update On Undecided Seats – Hung Parliament Looks Most Likely

11.39pm – Today I have removed 4 seats from the list of undecideds.

The 4 seats no longer considered undecided are: Robertson, Batman, La Trobe and Petrie.

Their removal means that the Coalition now has 68 seats, the ALP 66, and Others 5.

Of the 11 remaining seats in doubt, the Coalition is ahead in 5 and the ALP is ahead in 6. If these seats were to stay that way, the Coalition would finish with 73 seats, the ALP 72, and Others 5. The government would be three seats short of an absolute majority and we would have a hung Parliament.

Many media reports say there are only 8 or 9 doubtful seats. I have included Barker and Grey because the Australian Electoral Commission has not finished the reordering of two-party-preferred votes (Labor v. Liberal) to two-candidate-preferred (Liberal v. Xenophon). Both seats are likely to remain with the Liberals.

I have also included Melbourne Ports in the list of doubtful seats. There is a possibility that the full distribution of preferences could see the Greens overtake the ALP and move into second place. ALP preferences could then elect either the Green or Liberal candidate. The incumbent Labor MP, Michael Danby, issued a how-to-vote card that placed the Liberal candidate ahead of the Green. This adds an extra complication to predictions for this seat.

Ten seats in the table all have a margin of close-to or less than 1000 votes. Most have a margin of less than 1%. Experience shows that a margin of 1000 votes is unlikely to be reversed by postal, absent and declaration votes, although this varies widely between electorates.

There is a case to be made that Forde is the only doubtful seat left, but such a judgment is somewhat premature. The picture should be clearer by the end of Wednesday, July 6, after the counting of more postal votes.

House Of Representatives Undecided Seats: Latest Figures

These are the latest figures for seats that remain undecided in the House of Representatives.

The 15 seats in the table all have a margin of close-to or less than 1000 votes. Most have a margin of less than 1%. Experience shows that a margin of 1000 votes is unlikely to be reversed by postal, absent and declaration votes.

Of the 15 seats, the Coalition is ahead in 7, the ALP is ahead in 7 and the Nick Xenophon Team leads in 1.

On current counting, the Coalition and ALP each have a definite 65 seats, although estimates vary. If the Coalition were to maintain its lead in the 7 seats it is ahead in, it would have 72 seats, four short of an absolute majority of 76. If the ALP were to maintain its lead in the other 7 seats, it would have 72 seats, four short of an absolute majority. A government victory with 76 seats is possible, but the coalition will need to capture 11 seats from the list below. It cannot win Batman.

The seats of Batman, La Trobe and Melbourne Ports, in Victoria, and Robertson, in NSW, are not seriously in doubt. In Queensland, it is unlikely that Capricornia, Herbert and Petrie will change. In South Australia, it is not expected that NXT will win Barker, but very few votes have been posted as yet. Given the large number of pre-poll and postal votes, I have adopted an ultra-cautious approach to the list but I expect to be able to remove seats from this list in the next couple of days.

Significant new figures will not be available until Tuesday, July 5, when the counting of postal votes begins.

The table will be updated each day until all seats are decided.

Lucy Wicks (Lib – Robertson) – First Speech

Lucy Wicks was first elected as the Liberal member for Robertson at the 2013 federal election.

Wicks

Wicks defeated Deborah O’Neill who won the seat for the ALP in 2010, replacing Belinda Neal who won it in 2007. O’Neill has since been appointed to the Senate, filling the casual vacancy created by the retirement of Bob Carr. Robertson was represented by the Liberal Party’s Jim Lloyd for the duration of the Howard government from 1996 to 2007.

Robertson is a New South Wales electorate situated north of Sydney. It extends from the Hawkesbury River in the south, then north to Kulnura and east to Lisarow. The main population centres include Gosford, Terrigal, Woy Woy and Erina.

Labor Lead Dwindling; Majority Of 16 Likely; 8 Seats Still Undecided

Nearly two weeks after polling day, counting continues for all electorates in the House of Representatives, with absentee, postal and declaration votes trickling in.

The Australian Electoral Commission now has the ALP on 80 seats, the Liberals 50, The Nationals 10, and independents 2.

There are 8 seats still in doubt.

La Trobe is no longer regarded as doubtful, retained by the Liberal member, Jason Wood, by 889 votes.

AustralianPolitics.com
Malcolm Farnsworth
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