Final Two-Party Figures: Coalition Won 2013 Election With 3.61% Swing

Nov 28, 2013

Final figures published by the Australian Electoral Commission show that the Coalition won the 2013 federal election with a 3.61% swing.

The Liberal-Nationals coalition polled 53.49% of the national two-party-preferred vote. The ALP received 46.51%.

Every state and territory recorded a swing against the ALP. The largest swing was 9.39% in Tasmania. The smallest was 1.09% in the Northern Territory.

The Coalition did best in Western Australia, where it polled 58.28%, Queensland, where it polled 56.98% and New South Wales, where it polled 54.35%.

The Coalition had a net gain of 17 seats. It picked up 10 seats in NSW and 3 in Tasmania. It had a net gain of 2 in Victoria and 1 each in Queensland and South Australia. It lost one seat to the Palmer United Party’s Clive Palmer and one to Cathy McGowan, an independent.

The ALP received a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in just two states: Tasmania, where it polled 51.23% and Victoria, where it polled 50.20%. Its highest vote was 59.91% in the ACT. [Read more…]

Filed Under: 2013 Federal Election, A.L.P., Abbott, Election Statistics, Liberal Party, Rudd, Two-Party-Preferred Tagged With: ,

A.L.P. Federal Election Results Since 1910

Feb 25, 2013

An updated version of the data on this page was published in 2016.

“The ALP is heading for its biggest defeat ever under Gillard,” I was told recently.

The confident assertion promptly fell to pieces when I asked for a definition of “biggest defeat ever”. A garbled account of seats, votes and swings followed. Such are casual political conversations. Few people know the figures.

But the question is a good one. How do you measure the extent of an election defeat? If the Gillard government is annihilated this year, what measures of comparison should we use?

Here’s a table showing ALP statistics for three different measures: the proportion of seats won in the House of Representatives, the two-party-preferred vote, and the primary vote. The ALP’s winning election years are shaded yellow.

The table includes every election since Federation, except for the first three: 1901, 1903 and 1906. These have been excluded since they took place before the formation of the two-party system as we know it. Since 1910, elections have been fought between the ALP and the non-Labor parties under a variety of names.

The ALP has won 14 of the 40 elections held since 1910. I have categorised the 26 elections it has lost into four groups:

  1. Seven major defeats where the ALP won no more than a third of the seats in the House: 1917, 1925, 1931, 1966, 1975, 1977 and 1996.
  2. Seven significant defeats where the ALP won between 33% and 40% of the seats: 1919, 1922, 1934, 1937, 1949, 1955 and 1958.
  3. Nine moderate defeats where the ALP won between 40% and 50% of the seats: 1928, 1951, 1954, 1963, 1969, 1980, 1998, 2001 and 2004.
  4. Three near misses where the ALP just fell short: 1913, 1940 and 1961.
A.L.P. Performance In Federal Elections
Election Leader Election Won or Lost Seats Won In House of Representatives Two-Party-Preferred Vote % Primary Vote %
1910
Fisher
WIN
42 / 75 = 56.00%
–
49.97
1913
Fisher
LOSS
37 /75 = 49.33%
–
48.47
1914
Fisher
WIN
42 / 75 = 56.00%
–
50.89
1917
Tudor
LOSS
22/ 75 = 29.33%
–
43.94
1919
Tudor
LOSS
26 / 75 = 34.66%
–
42.49
1922
Charlton
LOSS
29 / 45 = 38.66%
–
42.30
1925
Charlton
LOSS
23 / 75 = 30.66%
–
45.04
1928
Scullin
LOSS
31 / 75 = 41.33%
–
44.64
1929
Scullin
WIN
46 / 75 = 61.33%
–
48.84
1931
Scullin
LOSS
14+4=18 / 75 = 24.00%
–
27.10+10.57 = 37.67
1934
Scullin
LOSS
18+9 = 27 / 74 = 36.48%
–
26.81+14.37 = 41.18
1937
Curtin
LOSS
29 / 74 = 39.19%
40.40
43.17
1940
Curtin
LOSS
32+4=36 / 74 = 48.64%
50.30
40.16+5.23 = 45.39
1943
Curtin
WIN
49 / 74 = 66.21%
58.20
49.94
1946
Chifley
WIN
43 / 74 = 58.10%
54.10
49.71
1949
Chifley
LOSS
47 / 121 = 38.84%
49.00
45.98
1951
Chifley
LOSS
52 / 121 = 42.97%
49.30
47.63
1954
Evatt
LOSS
57 / 121 = 47.10%
50.70
50.03
1955
Evatt
LOSS
47 / 122 = 38.52%
45.80
44.63
1958
Evatt
LOSS
45 / 122 = 36.88%
45.90
42.81
1961
Calwell
LOSS
60 / 122 = 49.18%
50.50
47.90
1963
Calwell
LOSS
50 / 122 = 40.98%
47.40
45.47
1966
Calwell
LOSS
41 / 124 = 33.06%
43.10
39.98
1969
Whitlam
LOSS
59 / 125 = 47.20%
50.20
46.95
1972
Whitlam
WIN
67 / 125 = 53.6%
52.70
49.59
1974
Whitlam
WIN
66 / 127 = 51.96%
51.70
49.30
1975
Whitlam
LOSS
36 / 127 = 28.34%
44.30
42.84
1977
Whitlam
LOSS
38 / 124 = 30.64%
45.40
39.65
1980
Hayden
LOSS
51 / 125 = 40.80%
49.60
45.15
1983
Hawke
WIN
75 / 125 = 60.00%
53.23
49.48
1984
Hawke
WIN
82 / 148 = 55.40%
51.77
47.55
1987
Hawke
WIN
86 / 148 = 58.10%
50.83
45.76
1990
Hawke
WIN
78 / 148 = 52.70%
49.90
39.44
1993
Keating
WIN
80 / 147 = 54.42%
51.44
44.92
1996
Keating
LOSS
49 / 148 = 33.10%
46.37
38.75
1998
Beazley
LOSS
67 / 148 = 45.27%
50.98
40.10
2001
Beazley
LOSS
65 / 150 = 43.33%
49.05
37.84
2004
Latham
LOSS
60 / 150 = 40.00%
47.26
37.63
2007
Rudd
WIN
83 / 150 = 55.33%
52.70
43.48
2010
Gillard
WIN
72 / 150 = 48.00%
50.12
37.99

By any measure, the ALP’s most successful election was John Curtin’s victory in 1943. Curtin won 66.21% of seats in the House. James Scullin won 61.33% in 1929 and Bob Hawke won 60% in 1983.

Curtin’s victory is also the only election in which the ALP polled in excess of 55% of the national two-party-preferred vote. [Note: Early figures for the two-party vote are not shown either because there are no precise figures available or because the election took place before preferential voting was introduced in 1918. Up until 1955, two-party figures contain a small element of estimation because some seats returned a member unopposed.] [Read more…]

Filed Under: A.L.P., Election Statistics, Elections, Gillard, Hawke, House of Reps, Keating, Political History, Primary Votes, Rudd, Whitlam Tagged With: , , ,

1998 Federal Election: Two-Party-Preferred Statistics By State And Seat

Dec 01, 1998

This page provides detailed two-party-preferred results for the 1998 Federal Election.

The statistics are organised by state and territory. Each electorate in the House of Representatives is shown.

New South Wales

New South Wales is the largest State in the Commonwealth with the largest number of House of Representatives electorates. It is very difficult for any party to win office without winning a majority of seats in NSW. [Read more…]

Filed Under: 1998 Federal Election, A.L.P., Election Statistics, Howard, Liberal Party, The Nationals, Two-Party-Preferred Tagged With: ,

1998 Federal Election: Two-Party-Preferred Statistics

Dec 01, 1998

The 1998 Federal Election is the second election this decade where the party or parties that won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote failed to win the election.

This also occurred in 1998, as well as in 1969, 1961 and 1954.

The Howard coalition government was elected with 49.02% of the two-party-preferred vote. It secured 80 of the 148 seats (54%) in the House of Representatives. Thus, its exaggerated majority is 5.03%.

The ALP secured a majority of the two-party vote in three States (NSW, Victoria & Tasmania) and both Territories. There was an overall swing to the ALP of 4.61%, the party regaining much of the 5.06% it lost in 1996.

The swing ranged from 0.94% in the Northern Territory to 7.17% in Queensland.

A measure of the electoral wipe-out the ALP suffered in 1996 can be seen by the fact that even though it secured swings of between 4 and 7 per cent in South Australia, Western Australia and Queensland, it remains the minority grouping in those States.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1998
House of Representatives – Summary
State ALP Votes ALP % L/NP Votes L/NP % % Swing To ALP
New South Wales 1,879,281
51.54
 1,766,640
48.46
4.11
Victoria 1,521,560
53.53
 1,321,121
46.47
3.22
Queensland 935,867
46.95
 1,057,508
53.05
7.17
Western Australia 515,733
49.46
 527,042
50.54
5.46
South Australia 434,189
46.89
 491,802
53.11
4.15
Tasmania 176,241
57.32
 131,236
42.68
5.74
Australian Capital Territory 121,552
62.44
 73,131
37.56
6.98
Northern Territory 45,986
50.57
 44,951
49.43
0.94
Total 5,630,409
50.98
 5,413,431
49.02
4.61

 

Source: Australian Electoral Commission publications

 

Filed Under: 1998 Federal Election, A.L.P., Election Statistics, Howard, Two-Party-Preferred Tagged With: ,
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