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1996 Federal Election: Two-Party-Preferred Statistics

May 01, 1996

The 1996 election produced the third largest majority ever for a government in the House of Representatives.

The new coalition government led by John Howard won 94 seats in the 148-seat lower house. The ALP won 49 seats, a loss of 31. There were 5 independents elected: 3 ex-Liberal members, 1 ex-Labor member and Pauline Hanson. Hanson won Oxley as a disendorsed Liberal candidate.

The overall swing against the ALP was 5.06%, with every part of the country swinging to the coalition. The largest swing was 8.65% in Queensland. The smallest swing was 1.50% in Victoria.

There were swings against the ALP in 140 electorates. The biggest swing was 12.68% in the Queensland electorate of Fadden. The smallest swing to the coalition was 0.10% in the Victorian electorate of La Trobe.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote only in Victoria, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory.

The election reduced the ALP to a “south-east triangle” of seats in Victoria, and New South Wales, the party winning 36 of its 49 seats in those two States, and most of those in Sydney and Melbourne.

The ALP won only 2 seats in Queensland and South Australia, 3 in Western Australia, 3 in Tasmania (the only State where it won a majority of seats) and all 3 seats in the ACT.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1996
House of Representatives – Summary
State ALP Votes ALP % L/NP Votes L/NP % % Swing To ALP
New South Wales 1,734,777
47.44
 1,922,165
52.56
-6.95
Victoria 1,388,142
50.30
 1,371,480
49.70
-1.50
Queensland 765,019
39.78
 1,158,122
60.22
-8.65
Western Australia 437,694
44.00
 557,055
56.00
-2.02
South Australia 391,516
42.74
 524,445
57.26
-4.59
Tasmania 159,853
51.58
 150,057
48.42
-3.07
Australian Capital Territory 105,323
55.46
 84,592
44.54
-5.73
Northern Territory 42,003
49.63
 42,630
50.37
-5.68
Total 5,024,327
46.37
 5,810,546
53.63
-5.06

 

Source: Australian Electoral Commission publications

 

Filed Under: 1996 Federal Election, Election Statistics, Howard, Two-Party-Preferred Tagged With: ,

1993 Federal Election: Two-Party-Preferred Statistics

May 01, 1993

The 1993 Federal Election is often described as the election that should have been “unlosable” for the coalition.

The Hawke Government had been re-elected in 1990 with a minority of the two-party-preferred vote and 78 seats, a majority of 7 on the floor of the House of Representatives, after the provision of a Speaker.

Going into the 1993 elections, Australia had been beset with an economic recession. Paul Keating had replaced Bob Hawke as Labor leader in December 1991. Very few people believed that the ALP could win a 5th term.

The “victory for the true believers”, as Keating put it on election night, saw the ALP secure a two-party swing of 1.54% and increase its seat tally to 80, a majority of 11 on the floor of the House.

The result was not evenly spread across the country. Swings to the ALP in Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales delivered an additional 9 seats. Swings to the coalition in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia cost the ALP 7 seats.

This was the first election since 1966 in which an incumbent government increased its share of the vote and its majority in the House of Representatives. In 1987, Hawke had increased his government’s majority, whilst losing overall support.

Victoria emerged as one of the ALP’s strongest States, only 5 months after the State Labor Government led by Joan Kirner was decimated. Tasmania delivered 4 of its 5 seats to the ALP, the party’s best result since 1974.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1993
House of Representatives – Summary
State ALP Votes ALP % L/NP Votes L/NP % Total Votes Exhausted Votes % Swing to ALP
New South Wales 1,928,635
54.38
 1,617,712
45.62
 3,546,347 2,131 2.25
Victoria 1,419,835
51.80
 1,320,898
48.20
 2,740,733 2,082 4.34
Queensland 884,426
48.43
 941,709
51.57
 1,826,135 1,189 -1.76
Western Australia 445,462
46.02
 522,580
53.98
 968,042 551 -1.11
South Australia 436,650
47.33
 485,892
52.67
 922,542 1,133 -2.17
Tasmania 167,780
54.65
 139,239
45.35
 307,019 121 6.75
Australian Capital Territory 110,055
61.19
 69,796
38.81
 179,851 118 2.65
Northern Territory 43,578
55.31
 35,207
44.69
 78,785 0 0.29
Australia 5,436,421
51.44
 5,133,033
48.56
 10,569,454 7,325 1.54

 

Source: Australian Electoral Commission publications

 

Filed Under: 1993 Federal Election, Election Statistics, Two-Party-Preferred Tagged With: ,

1990 Federal Election: Two-Party-Preferred Statistics

May 01, 1990

The 1990 Federal Election joins a select list of federal elections where the party or parties that won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote failed to win the election.

The other elections were 1998, 1969, 1961 and 1954.

The Hawke Labor government was elected with 49.90% of the two-party-preferred vote. It secured 78 of the 148 seats (52.70%) in the House of Representatives. Thus, its exaggerated majority is 2.8%.

The ALP secured a majority of the two-party vote in two States (NSW & Queensland) and both Territories. There was an overall swing against the ALP of 0.9%.

Two-Party-Preferred Statistics 1990
House of Representatives – Summary
State ALP Votes ALP % L/NP Votes L/NP % Total Votes Exhausted Votes
New South Wales 1,744,666
52.13
 1,601,846
47.87
 3,346,512 8,159
Victoria 1,216,633
47.46
 1,347,048
52.54
 2,563,681 3,449
Queensland 837,508
50.19
 831,015
49.81
 1,668,523 3,074
Western Australia 420,816
47.13
 472,092
52.87
 892,908 1,791
South Australia 441,659
49.50
 450,503
50.50
 892,162 1,592
Tasmania 138,556
47.90
 150,709
52.10
 289,265 239
Australian Capital Territory 93,498
58.54
 66,206
41.46
 159,704 358
Northern Territory 37,498
55.02
 30,650
44.98
 68,148 109
Australia 4,930,834
49.90
 4,950,069
50.10
 9,880,903 18,771

 

Source: Australian Electoral Commission publications

 

Filed Under: 1990 Federal Election, Election Statistics, Two-Party-Preferred Tagged With: ,
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