MPs Who Won Their Seats On First Preferences In The 2016 Federal Election

Just under a third of the seats in the House of Representatives were decided on first preference (primary) votes, at the 2016 Federal Election.

By definition, these seats are the most secure for the various parties, since preference distribution cannot change the result. The winner has already secured an absolute majority of at least 50%+1 over every other candidate.

Of the 150 electorates, 48 (32%) were won on the primary vote. There were 53 such seats (35%) at the 2013 election. In 2004, 89 seats (59%) were decided on first preferences.

The Liberal Party was most successful, winning 27 of the 48 seats (56%), including 12 in NSW. The Liberal wins covered 4 states.

The Nationals won 5 seats (10%), including 3 in NSW, giving the coalition 32, or 67% of the total.

The ALP won 16 (33%) of the seats, including 10 in NSW. It won 6 seats in Victoria, but failed to win any more in other states or territories.

Seats Won On Primary Votes – 2016 Federal Election
Party NSW Vic Qld WA Total
Liberal Party
12
8
4
3
27
The Nationals
3
2
5
Australian Labor Party
10
6
16
TOTAL
25
16
4
3
48

 
NSW was the only state to have a majority of seats (25 of 47, or 53%) won on primary votes. In Victoria, 16 seats out of 37 (43%) were won on first preferences. Western Australia recorded 19% and Queensland 13%.

The two smallest states, South Australia and Tasmania, had no seats decided on primaries. The four seats in the two territories all went to preferences.

The Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) drained votes from the major parties in South Australia, where 5 Liberal seats (Barker, Boothby, Grey, Mayo and Sturt) and 1 ALP seat (Port Adelaide) were all won on primaries in 2013. This year, NXT won Mayo and came second in Barker and Grey, whilst polling strongly in the other seats.

The seats of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (Wentworth), Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce (New England) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (Maribyrnong) all feature on the list of seats won on primaries, as do Treasurer Scott Morrison (Cook) and Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen (McMahon). Former prime minister Tony Abbott (Warringah) also won his seat on primaries.

The largest primary vote in the nation was achieved by Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, in Curtin, Western Australia. She won 65.50% of the primary vote and 70.70% of the two-party-preferred.

Andrew Broad, the Nationals member for Mallee, did better than Bishop with 71.32% of the two-party vote, off a slightly lower primary of 64.31%.

Even though it was not won on primaries, the safest seat in the nation, following the election, is Murray, won by the Nationals’ Damian Drum, with a two-party vote of 74.90%. Following the retirement of Sharman Stone, the Nationals took the seat from the Liberal Party.

The ALP’s safest seat in two-party terms is Grayndler, held by Anthony Albanese, with 72.36% of the two-party vote. However, whilst they are still in third place, the challenge to the ALP in this seat comes from the Greens.

The three tables below show each of the 48 seats won on primary votes at the 2016 election by the Liberals, Nationals and ALP. The primary vote and two-party-preferred percentage are shown for each seat.

Liberal Seats Decided On First Preferences (Primary Votes) – 2016
No. Seat State Party Member Primary % 2PP %
1.
Bennelong
NSW
Liberal John Alexander
50.41
59.72
2.
Berowra
NSW
Liberal Julian Leeser
57.09
66.45
3.
Bradfield
NSW
Liberal Paul Fletcher
61.12
71.04
4.
Cook
NSW
Liberal Scott Morrison
58.35
65.39
5.
Farrer
NSW
Liberal Sussan Ley
57.87
70.53
6.
Hughes
NSW
Liberal Craig Kelly
51.97
59.33
7.
Hume
NSW
Liberal Angus Taylor
53.83
60.18
8.
Mackellar
NSW
Liberal Jason Falinski
51.17
65.74
9.
Mitchell
NSW
Liberal Alex Hawke
60.49
67.82
10.
North Sydney
NSW
Liberal Trent Zimmerman
51.49
63.61
11.
Warringah
NSW
Liberal Tony Abbott
51.65
61.55
12.
Wentworth
NSW
Liberal Malcolm Turnbull
62.26
67.75
13.
Aston
Vic
Liberal Alan Tudge
50.86
58.59
14.
Deakin
Vic
Liberal Michael Sukkar
50.03
55.68
15.
Flinders
Vic
Liberal Greg Hunt
51.60
57.77
16.
Goldstein
Vic
Liberal Tim Wilson
56.33
62.68
17.
Higgins
Vic
Liberal Kelly O’Dwyer
52.00
57.99
18.
Kooyong
Vic
Liberal Josh Frydenberg
58.22
63.34
19.
Menzies
Vic
Liberal Kevin Andrews
51.72
60.56
20.
Wannon
Vic
Liberal Dan Tehan
53.23
58.96
21.
Groom
Qld
LNP John McVeigh
54.00
65.31
22.
McPherson
Qld
LNP Karen Andrews
53.29
61.64
23.
Moncrieff
Qld
Liberal Steve Ciobo
58.97
64.94
24.
Ryan
Qld
LNP Jane Prentice
52.13
59.09
25.
Canning
WA
Liberal Andrew Hastie
50.30
56.79
26.
Curtin
WA
Liberal Julie Bishop
65.50
70.70
27.
Moore
WA
Liberal Ian Goodenough
54.98
61.02

 

Nationals Seats Decided On First Preferences (Primary Votes) – 2016
No. Seat State Party Member Primary % 2PP %
1.
New England
NSW
Nationals Barnaby Joyce
52.29
58.52
2.
Parkes
NSW
Nationals Mark Coulton
58.65
65.10
3.
Riverina
NSW
Nationals Michael McCormack
57.20
66.44
4.
Gippsland
Vic
Nationals Darren Chester
56.34
68.43
5.
Mallee
Vic
Nationals Andrew Broad
64.31
71.32

 

ALP Seats Decided On First Preferences (Primary Votes) – 2016
No. Seat State Party Member Primary % 2PP %
1.
Blaxland
NSW
ALP Jason Clare
63.31
69.48
2.
Chifley
NSW
ALP Ed Husic
61.09
69.19
3.
Fowler
NSW
ALP Chris Hayes
60.82
67.49
4.
Hunter
NSW
ALP Joel Fitzgibbon
51.79
62.46
5.
Macarthur
NSW
ALP Mike Freelander
51.88
58.33
6.
McMahon
NSW
ALP Chris Bowen
53.44
62.11
7.
Shortland
NSW
ALP Pat Conroy
51.17
59.94
8.
Watson
NSW
ALP Tony Burke
55.39
67.58
9.
Werriwa
NSW
ALP Anne Stanley
52.14
58.20
10.
Whitlam
NSW
ALP Stephen Jones
52.76
63.72
11.
Calwell
Vic
ALP Maria Vamvakinou
56.81
67.87
12.
Gorton
Vic
ALP Brendan O’Connor
62.29
69.45
13.
Holt
Vic
ALP Anthony Byrne
53.70
64.17
14.
Lalor
Vic
ALP Joanne Ryan
51.80
63.44
15.
Maribyrnong
Vic
ALP Bill Shorten
50.52
62.31
16.
Scullin
Vic
ALP Andrew Giles
57.00
67.28

 

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