2016 Primary Vote Winners, Preference Vote Losers

There were 16 seats in the 2016 federal election where the primary vote leaders were defeated after the full distribution of preferences.

The ALP benefited in 15 seats and the Nick Xenophon Team in one. In 14 seats, (7 held by the ALP and 7 by the Coalition), the coalition candidate led on primary votes but the seat was won by the ALP after preferences. In one seat, the Liberal lead was overtaken by the Xenophon candidate. In another, the ALP overcame a Greens lead.

The 16 seats were spread across the states: Queensland (4), Victoria (3), South Australia (3), New South Wales (2), Western Australia (2) and Tasmania (2).

Overall, 48 (32%) of the 150 House of Representatives electorates were decided on primary votes, whilst 102 (68%) required preference distribution to obtain a winner.

It is worth noting that 86 of the 102 electorates were won after preferences by the candidates who led the primary vote count. Even with preferences, a primary vote lead is difficult to overcome.

The full force of the preferential voting system can be seen in the 16 seats where preferences overturned a primary vote lead.

Just one of the 16 seats was won by a third-party candidate. Rebekha Sharkie won Mayo, polling 34.86% of the primary vote and initially coming in second behind the sitting Liberal, Jamie Briggs.

In the other 15 seats, the ALP was the beneficiary of preference distribution. Eight seats already held by the ALP were retained (Adelaide, Perth, Griffith, Moreton, Batman, Jagajaga, Melbourne Ports and Richmond), whilst another seven were won from the Liberal Party (Macquarie, Herbert, Longman, Cowan, Hindmarsh, Braddon and Lyons).

2013 Comparison: In the 2013 federal election, there were 15 seats where Liberal primary vote leads were overturned by the ALP after preferences. Five of these seats (Richmond, Jagajaga, Melbourne Ports, Griffith and Moreton) repeated the performance again this year. Of the others, the Liberal Party improved its primary vote sufficiently to win Chisholm and regained Fairfax from Clive Palmer. In six seats (Kingsford Smith, Parramatta, Bendigo, Bruce, McEwen and Lilley), the ALP improved its primary vote by enough to regain the primary lead. Indi and Kennedy were retained by the incumbent independents with increased majorities.

Previous Elections: 20132004200119981996

Primary Leads Overturned After Preference Distribution
House of Representatives – 2016
No. State Division Incumbent Primary Vote Leader Primary
(%)
Successful
Candidate
Primary
(%)
Two-Party
(%)
1.
NSW
Macquarie Louise Markus
(LP)
Louise Markus
(LP)
38.21
Susan Templeman
(ALP)
35.52
52.19
2.
NSW
Richmond Justine Elliot
(ALP)
Matthew Fraser
(Nats)
37.61
Justine Elliot
(ALP)
31.05
53.96
3.
Vic
Batman David Feeney
(ALP)
Alex Bhatal
(Greens)
36.23
David Feeney
(ALP)
35.27
51.03
4.
Vic
Jagajaga Jenny Macklin
(ALP)
David Mulholland
(LP)
41.03
Jenny Macklin
(ALP)
39.21
54.67
5.
Vic
Melbourne Ports Michael Danby
(ALP)
Owen Guest
(LP)
41.90
Michael Danby
(ALP)
27.00
51.38
6.
Qld
Griffith Terri Butler
(ALP)
Fiona Ward
(LNP)
41.00
Terri Butler
(ALP)
33.18
51.60
7.
Qld
Herbert Ewen Jones
(LNP)
Ewen Jones
(LNP)
35.50
Cathy O’Toole
(ALP)
30.45
50.02
8.
Qld
Longman Wyatt Roy
(LNP)
Wyatt Roy
(LNP)
39.01
Susan Lamb
(ALP)
35.38
50.79
9.
Qld
Moreton Graham Perrett
(ALP)
Nic Monsour
(LNP)
37.79
Graham Perrett
(ALP)
36.90
54.02
10.
WA
Cowan Luke Simpkins
(LP)
Luke Simpkins
(LP)
42.22
Anne Aly
(ALP)
41.68
50.68
11.
WA
Perth Alannah MacTiernan
(ALP) ret
Jeremy Quinn
(LP)
42.31
Tim Hammond
(ALP)
37.36
53.33
12.
SA
Adelaide Kate Ellis
(ALP)
David Colovic
(LP)
36.43
Kate Ellis
(ALP)
35.93
54.65
13.
SA
Hindmarsh Matt Williams
(LP)
Matt Williams
(LP)
40.36
Steve Georganas
(ALP)
34.02
50.58
14.
SA
Mayo Jamie Briggs
(LP)
Jamie Briggs
(LP)
37.76
Rebekha Sharkie
(NXT)
34.86
54.97
15.
Tas
Braddon Brett Whiteley
(LP)
Brett Whiteley
(LP)
41.50
Justine Keay
(ALP)
40.05
52.20
16.
Tas
Lyons Eric Hutchinson
(LP)
Eric Hutchinson
(LP)
41.88
Brian Mitchell
(ALP)
38.57
52.31

 

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